{ "schema_version": "1.3", "rebuild": "v2", "provenance_class": "dealt_hand", "table_size": 5, "id": "86-two-pair-vs-erratic-jam", "format": "call_fold", "free": true, "updated_at": "2026-08-08T00:00:00Z", "source": { "session_id": "2025-12-04", "verdict_audio": "quiz/audio/86-two-pair-vs-erratic-jam.m4a", "verdict_beats": "s492 (t=2422.77-2426.21) + s496-s499 (t=2437.87-2467.91), the beats already registered in tools/cut_quiz_audio.py (clip NOT re-cut this rebuild — it contains no numbers, no sizes, no cards and no population figures, and every claim in it is true of the rebuilt hand). Echo-checked 2026-08-08 (faster-whisper small.en): re-ASR of the shipped 34.4s m4a returns both beats verbatim — see aired_transcript. At the first verdict word the PokerTracker replayer is paused on THIS hand's turn decision node (own frame t=2423).", "lesson_slug": null, "hand_record": { "site": "Ignition hand, reviewed in the PokerTracker 4 replayer (frames READ-ONLY, never aired)", "hand_id": "#4789550819", "stake": "$5 NL (6 max)", "stake_source": "replayer title bar verbatim 'Playback for Ignition Hand #4789550819 (2) - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem' — session 2025-12-04 frame t=2386 (title-bar zoom re-read this rebuild)", "units_note": "the replayer displays every amount natively in BB ('posts the small blind 0.50 BB', 'Pot: 147.40 BB', 'bets 57.10 BB'); the fixture copies those BB figures verbatim — no $-to-bb conversion was performed anywhere (the hand-selector's '$519.50' is left uninterpreted; no on-screen mapping for it exists)", "video_t": [2362, 2510], "frames": [ "t=2386 (scratchpad dh1/86-two-pair-vs-erratic-jam/frames/f_2386.png + log/title zooms) — title bar; 5 players at the 6-max ring (one seat empty); hero '86' with both cards RED (4-colour deck: hearts) and the dealer disc; posts/raise chips on felt (0.50 / 1 / 3 / 3 / 3); preflop log verbatim (see log_verbatim)", "t=2394 (f_2394.png) — flop decision node: board 8 (BLUE diamond) J (BLACK spade) 6 (BLACK spade), centre pot chip '10.50 BB', 'Pot: 20.48 BB', 'Odds: 2.05:1 - 33%', villain tagged BET with '9.98 BB' chips, hero '111.67 BB' behind; log pane: 'P3… folds / P4… folds / Flop: [8d Js 6s] / P5… checks / P6… bets 9.98 BB'", "t=2423 (f_2423.png + log zoom) — turn decision node ON SCREEN AT THE FIRST VERDICT WORD (s492 t0=2422.77): board + T (GREEN club), 'Pot: 147.40 BB', 'Odds: 2.58:1 - 28%', villain '0 BB' behind with '57.10 BB' bet chips out, centre pot '90.31 BB', hero 'Hero - 81% / 71.77 BB'", "t=2445, t=2460 (f_2445.png, f_2460.png) — same node still on screen across the whole aired window (verdict audio ends at s499 t1=2467.91)", "t=2500 (log zoom log_2500_zoom.png) — showdown log verbatim (see log_verbatim): villain shows Jc 7c, one pair of jacks; Hero wins 203.90 BB" ], "log_verbatim": [ "Seat 1 (Hero) is the dealer", "P3-694d4d0a7cd677367cd1c711fc7c0768 posts the small blind 0.50 BB", "P4-3f0e896ff99c0a02b1d875c4fb12a2ff posts the big blind 1 BB", "P5-3a849dc55eb5845177548c15f6bda899 posts a live blind 0.50 BB", "P6-01c66edf9d9f908cebe91e903bde71f3 posts a live blind 1 BB", "P5-3a849dc55eb5845177548c15f6bda899 raises to 3 BB", "P6-01c66edf9d9f908cebe91e903bde71f3 calls 2 BB", "Hero calls 3 BB", "P3-694d4d0a7cd677367cd1c711fc7c0768 folds", "P4-3f0e896ff99c0a02b1d875c4fb12a2ff folds", "Flop: [8d Js 6s]", "P5-3a849dc55eb5845177548c15f6bda899 checks", "P6-01c66edf9d9f908cebe91e903bde71f3 bets 9.98 BB", "Hero raises to 39.90 BB", "P5-3a849dc55eb5845177548c15f6bda899 folds", "P6-01c66edf9d9f908cebe91e903bde71f3 calls 29.93 BB", "Turn: [Tc]", "P6-01c66edf9d9f908cebe91e903bde71f3 bets 57.10 BB", "Hero calls 57.10 BB", "River: [3h]", "Action has ended", "Hero shows [8h 6h] Two Pair, Eights and Sixes", "P6-01c66edf9d9f908cebe91e903bde71f3 shows [7c Jc] One Pair, Jacks", "Hero wins 203.90 BB" ], "table_structure": "6-max table running 5-handed (one seat empty, frame t=2386) — no straddle, no ante, but TWO out-of-position live-blind posts before the deal: P5 'posts a live blind 0.50 BB' and P6 'posts a live blind 1 BB' (log verbatim; Tyler at s480: 'a pro who's put in a half a big [blind]… a looser player who's posted… somehow I'm the only person who doesn't have money in this pot'). Dealer = Hero (Seat 1); P3 SB, P4 BB; the flop is THREE-WAY (P5, P6, Hero).", "stacks_bb": { "hero_at_decision": 71.77, "villain_at_decision": 0, "utg_at_decision": 97, "sb_at_decision": 128.41, "bb_at_decision": 99, "hero_start_derived": "114.67 — seat reads 111.67 after the 3 bb preflop call (t=2386/2394) and 71.77 after the 39.90 flop raise (t=2423); HUD line 'Hero / 115 BB'", "villain_start_derived": "100.01 — 97 behind + 3 in at the flop node; log totals 3 + 9.98 + 29.93 + 57.10 (PT cent-rounding makes his flop continue 29.93 against hero's raise-to-39.90)" }, "rounding_note": "PT cent-rounding artifacts: the log's 'calls 29.93 BB' makes P6's flop total 39.91 vs hero's 39.90, and the centre-pot chip prints '90.31 BB'. The fixture renders the coherent BB tree (10.5 + 2 x 39.9 = 90.3), which reproduces the decision node's own top-line 'Pot: 147.40 BB' exactly (90.3 + 57.1 = 147.4). Max drift from any on-screen figure: 0.01 BB.", "result": "Hero calls; river 3h blanks; villain shows Jc 7c — one pair of jacks (Tyler: 'he has I believe jack five which jack seven', s502); Hero wins 203.90 BB. Recorded for provenance; not displayed or graded." } }, "context": "TYLER'S OWN HAND · $5 NL 6-MAX, 5-HANDED · vs AN ERRATIC BLIND-POSTER", "hero": { "pos": "BTN", "cards": [ "8h", "6h" ], "stack_bb": 71.77, "avatar": "lono_ghoul", "button": true }, "seats": [ { "pos": "SB", "avatar": "ghoul_5152", "folded": true }, { "pos": "BB", "avatar": "ghoul_4200", "folded": true }, { "pos": "UTG", "avatar": "ghoul_1484", "stack_bb": 97 }, { "pos": "CO", "avatar": "ghoul_3469", "name": "ERRATIC", "stack_bb": 0, "villain": true } ], "streets": [ { "name": "preflop", "actions": [ { "pos": "UTG", "act": "raise", "to_bb": 3 }, { "pos": "CO", "act": "call" }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "call" }, { "pos": "SB", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "BB", "act": "fold" } ], "pot_bb": 10.5 }, { "name": "flop", "board": [ "8d", "Js", "6s" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "UTG", "act": "check" }, { "pos": "CO", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 9.98 }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "raise", "to_bb": 39.9 }, { "pos": "UTG", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "CO", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 90.3 }, { "name": "turn", "board": [ "8d", "Js", "6s", "Tc" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "CO", "act": "allin", "to_bb": 57.1 } ] } ], "prompt": "8♥6♥ · BOTTOM TWO PAIR · THE ERRATIC BLIND-POSTER JAMS THE TURN — CALL OR FOLD?", "pot_bb": 147.4, "options": [ { "id": "call", "label": "CALL" }, { "id": "fold", "label": "FOLD" } ], "correct": "call", "option_feedback": { "call": "Correct — he's super erratic, and you just call super erratic players. A bad player shoves a lot of hands early because he doesn't know what he's doing; a pro waits for the nuts. From this opponent — he posted a blind out of position and led the flop the moment he connected — the jam stopped meaning strength. And the price seals it: 57.1 BB more to win the 147.4 BB out there, about 28% — bottom two pair is far ahead of an erratic early-shove range.", "fold": "Bottom two pair on a straightening board fears exactly this jam, and against a patient player a turn shove really is nutted — a pro waits around for the nuts. But run that read in reverse here: this opponent posted a blind out of position, led pot into two players on the flop, and jammed the turn the first chance he got. An early all-in from him is evidence he's bad, not that he got there — folding surrenders a price you're beating." }, "verdict_text": "He's super erratic — you just call super erratic players. The fact that he jammed turn is no longer an indication that he has a nut hand, but an indication that he's a bad player. A pro is going to wait around until he has the nuts — if you see a jam early, this person is more likely weighted towards someone who's erratic and terrible than someone who's good.", "aired_transcript": "Yeah, he's super erratic. You just call super erratic players that the fact that he jammed turn is no longer an indication that he has a nut hand, but an indication that he's a bad player because a bad player would shove a lot of hands early in these situations because he doesn't know what he's doing. Whereas a pro is going to wait around and wait until he has the nuts. And so if you see a jam early, the person, this person is more likely to be weighted towards someone who's erratic and terrible than he is someone who's good.", "aired_transcript_note": "Verbatim small.en re-ASR of quiz/audio/86-two-pair-vs-erratic-jam.m4a (34.4s, beats s492 + s496-s499, re-run 2026-08-08). The splice joins s492 into s496 mid-breath ('…players that the fact…') — present in the shipped clip unchanged. No board cards, no bet sizes, no percentages and no population figures are aired.", "principle": "An early all-in from an erratic player is evidence about the player, not the hand: bad players shove early because they don't know what they're doing, pros wait for the nuts — so call down lighter against the erratic ones.", "pct_provenance": { "28": { "role": "price", "referent": "Breakeven equity of the graded call: hero calls 57.1 BB more to win the 147.4 BB out there (90.3 settled + his 57.1 + the call), i.e. 57.1 / 204.5 = 27.9%, displayed ~28%. The replayer prints the same price at the decision node: 'Odds: 2.58:1 - 28%'.", "source": "own frame f_2423 (t=2423, 'Pot: 147.40 BB' / 'Odds: 2.58:1 - 28%') + fixture arithmetic" } }, "size_claims": { "pot": { "street": "flop", "actor": "CO", "bet_bb": 9.98, "pct_of_pot": 95.0, "note": "'led pot' in option_feedback.fold / 'led the flop' in option_feedback.call — 9.98 BB into the 10.50 BB flop pot = 95%. Tyler's words: 'He bets pot.' (s485)", "source": "own frames f_2386 (log: 'bets 9.98 BB') and f_2394 (felt: 9.98 chips over the 10.50 centre pot); SER 2025-12-04 s485" } }, "claims": [ { "text": "the turn jam is his entire stack", "basis": "CO bets 57.10 BB on the turn with '0 BB' behind on the felt; his line totals 3 + 9.98 + 29.93 + 57.10 = 100.01 of a ~100 BB start (97 behind + 3 in at the flop node). 57.1 into the 90.3 BB pot is 63% of pot — a jam, NOT an overbet; the old fixture's 'over-jams' framing is retired.", "source": "own frames f_2423/f_2445 (felt '0 BB', '57.10 BB', centre '90.31 BB') + log; spoken s491 'the 10 hits and he jams'" }, { "text": "about 28% — the price of the graded call", "basis": "57.1 more to win 90.3 + 57.1 + 57.1 = 204.5 → 27.9%; the replayer prints 'Odds: 2.58:1 - 28%' at this node.", "source": "own frame f_2423 + fixture arithmetic (see pct_provenance['28'])" }, { "text": "he posted a blind out of position and led pot the moment he connected", "basis": "log 'P6-01c66edf9… posts a live blind 1 BB' + flop 'bets 9.98 BB' into the 10.50 pot (95%); Tyler: 'He bets pot. This is the loose player who put a blind in' (s485-486), 'he can be really erratic based on… kind of his posting' (s489).", "source": "own frames f_2386/f_2394; SER 2025-12-04 s485-s486, s489" }, { "text": "the real hand's call was made and won: the erratic jam was one pair", "basis": "log verbatim: 'Hero calls 57.10 BB / River: [3h] / Action has ended / Hero shows [8h 6h] Two Pair, Eights and Sixes / P6… shows [7c Jc] One Pair, Jacks / Hero wins 203.90 BB'. Recorded for provenance; the result is not displayed or graded.", "source": "own frame t=2500 (log zoom); spoken s502" } ], "unverifiable_claims": [ "Tyler's read on the OTHER poster (UTG, P5) — 'a pro who's put in a half a big [blind]… or at least someone who's a little tighter' (s480) — is spoken profiling, not displayed; recorded because it explains hero's preflop flat (s481 'I decide to flat with kind of the weaker players in front of me').", "The sample-size context for the read — Eric: 'a good player, 60 hands on, you haven't seen anything like this yet' (s500) and Tyler's 'we're early enough into this sample' (s495) — session dialogue, not displayed.", "'Dodged a bullet' (s502) is result talk about the villain's live outs; the villain's actual hand (Jc 7c) is log-verbatim in hand_record, not displayed." ], "cosmetic_invention": [ "The felt engine cannot render out-of-position live-blind POSTS, so the preflop is rendered as: UTG raises to 3 BB, CO calls, Hero calls, blinds fold. In the real hand UTG had posted a live 0.50 BB and CO a live 1 BB before the raise (log verbatim); every rendered TOTAL is exact — UTG's raise-to-3 contains his 0.50 post, CO's call completes his 1 BB post to 3, and the 10.5 BB flop pot matches the felt readout. The posting itself — the basis of Tyler's read — is carried by the context line, the villain tag and the feedback text.", "Seat labels UTG/CO are the standard 5-handed names for the two posters' seats relative to hero's button (log: 'Seat 1 (Hero) is the dealer'; P3 = SB, P4 = BB). The replayer shows anonymized hashes (P5-3a84…, P6-01c6…), not position names.", "The villain tag 'ERRATIC' is Tyler's own stated read on this real opponent, cited: 'he can be really erratic based on… kind of his posting' (s489), 'he's super erratic' (s492). The old fixture's invented 'FISH' tag is removed — 'fish' is never said of this player.", "Ghoul avatars on all seats (lono_ghoul hero) — art only; the real table showed anonymized hashes.", "NOT cosmetic: hero's exact cards 8♥6♥ (log 'Hero shows [8h 6h]'; spoken s482 'Eight six of hearts'), the full board with suits 8♦ J♠ 6♠ / T♣ (log verbatim 'Flop: [8d Js 6s]' / 'Turn: [Tc]'; 4-colour felt confirms), every size (3 / 9.98 / 39.9 / 57.1), the stacks at the decision and the 5-handed two-poster structure — all pixel-read from the PokerTracker replay of Ignition hand #4789550819." ], "concept": "early-jam-is-a-tell", "concepts_secondary": [], "topic": "bayesian-profiling", "difficulty": 4, "decision": { "pot_settled_bb": 90.3, "bets": { "CO": 57.1 } } }