{
  "schema_version": "1.3",
  "table_size": 6,
  "id": "aces-river-jam-vs-station",
  "format": "multi_option",
  "free": true,
  "rebuild": "v2",
  "provenance_class": "model_spot",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-08T00:00:00Z",
  "source": {
    "session_id": "ComplicationofFishvsRegularsRanges",
    "verdict_audio": "quiz/audio/aces-river-jam-vs-station.m4a",
    "lesson_slug": null,
    "solver_node": {
      "tool": "GTO Wizard",
      "file": "app.gtowizard.com/solutions?solution_type=gwiz&soltab=strategy&gmfs_solution_tab=ai_sols&gametype=Cash6m500zGeneral&depth=100",
      "node": "Cash 100bb | 6max NL500 | General GTO | 3b: GTO -- UTG 100 Fold / HJ 100 Raise 2 / CO 100 Fold / BTN 100 Fold / SB 99.5 Call / BB 99 Fold -> FLOP (anchor node for this quiz)",
      "video_t": 2240.0,
      "board": "Qd Th 5s (turn 7c)",
      "pot_chips": 5.0,
      "stacks_chips": 98.0,
      "chips_per_bb": 1.0,
      "units_note": "GTO Wizard displays this solution in big blinds (strip reads 'Cash 100bb', stacks 100 / 99.5 / 99, FLOP 5), so chips ARE bb; no $ conversion is made or displayed.",
      "tree_open_node": "SB 98 Check / HJ 98 Bet 1.65 (33%) / SB 98 Call -> TURN 7c pot 8.3, stacks 96.35 / SB 96.35 Check / HJ to act (rungs 33/50/75/125/175/250%, Allin 96.35)",
      "tree_open_node_video_t": 5000.0,
      "displayed_line_is_not_a_tree_branch": "The felt shows Tyler's own big/big rollout for the recreational opponent, NOT a solved branch: the tree has no 110% or 150% rung on either street and the rec version was never solved (SER s1133 'we didn't do the solve'). The rollout is the one Tyler computes on the two calculators at t=5838 after Eric's premise 'start from the flop with an over bet' (s1158): Tyler 'you over bet flop' (s1160), 'you bet big on the flop the guy calls the top 40 of his range' (s1163), and his Anki card A on screen at t=5760 reads 'vs a rec they have too few two pairs (about 2.8% of range)... to bet big on flop for all of these same reasons. We like to barrell the turn very large as well'. Sizings displayed: flop 7.5 (150% pot) = the bet whose MDF continuation is the calculator's 0.40 exactly (5/(5+7.5)=0.400) under the model's own written rule (Notepad t=5790: '...on the turn and river if we get called by MDF'); turn 22 (110% pot) = the Notepad betsize ladder's 'Percentile -- 1.1 Pot' rung (t=5790), whose MDF is 20/(20+22)=0.476, Tyler's calculator divisor 0.48 rounded to two digits -- the same rounding the reg branch proves (spoken 'three quarters pot' s1174 <-> divisor 0.58, exact 0.571). The resulting river jam, 68.5 into 64 (107% pot), is what Tyler describes at s1182: 'we would bet slightly on the pot... kind of an equilibrium strategy' -- a sentence irreconcilable with the previously-rendered pot/pot line (jam 78 into 45 = 173%). Only the starting pot (5) and stacks (98) are the node's.",
      "continuation_model": "Continues by MDF at each bet (Notepad t=5790: 'What hands profitable to bet twice on the turn and river if we get called by MDF'): top 40% vs the big flop bet, top 48% vs the 1.1-pot turn. Right calculator at t=5838: 0.028 / 0.4 = 0.07 then 0.07 / 0.48 = 0.14583333 (rec). Left calculator, same frame: 0.064 / 0.4 = 0.16 then 0.16 / 0.58 = 0.2758 (reg comparison, 6.4% start, 3/4-pot turn).",
      "verdict_wording_note": "The aired s1179 says 'against a reg you can go pot, pot, check' -- Tyler's loose summary of HIS OWN reg rollout, whose computed sizings were the same big flop bet (divisor 0.4 = MDF of 150%) and a 3/4-pot turn (0.58); a literal pot/pot line would divide by 0.5 both times, which appears on neither calculator. So the aired words and the felt's 150%/110% line are the same model under his stated MDF arithmetic; 'the same logic over again' = re-count two-pair-plus after each MDF continuation, which is exactly the displayed chain.",
      "villain_model": "SB caller = an ASSUMED 78% VPIP range chosen in conversation (Eric s424 '78 VPIP', Tyler s417-419 'what type of player is this / let's just go unknown'); 1326 x 0.78 = 1034.28 combos (calculator, video t=2130), 29 two-pair-plus combos counted by hand (9 QT + 9 Q5 + 9 sets + 2 T5o, SER s451-456) = 2.8%. Not a database or population measurement.",
      "frames_read": [
        2130.0,
        2240.0,
        5000.0,
        5760.0,
        5790.0,
        5838.0
      ],
      "verified_by": "pixels re-read 2026-08-08 (node strip t=2240 + t=5000, board colours 4-colour deck: Q blue=d, T red=h, 5 grey=s, 7 green=c; calculators t=2130 '1326 x 0.78 = 1,034.28' + '9+9+9+2 = 29' and t=5838 rec 0.028/0.4=0.07, 0.07/0.48=0.14583333 / reg 0.064/0.4=0.16, 0.16/0.58=0.2758; Notepad ladder + MDF rule t=5790; Anki card A t=5760; s1182 re-ASR'd word-level: 'we would bet slightly on the pot... kind of an equilibrium strategy')"
    }
  },
  "context": "MODEL SPOT · 6-MAX NL500 · 100BB · HJ vs SB · VILLAIN = AN ASSUMED 78% VPIP REC RANGE",
  "hero": {
    "pos": "HJ",
    "cards": [
      "As",
      "Ah"
    ],
    "stack_bb": 68.5,
    "avatar": "lono_ghoul"
  },
  "seats": [
    {
      "pos": "CO",
      "avatar": "ghoul_3461",
      "folded": true
    },
    {
      "pos": "BTN",
      "avatar": "ghoul_1731",
      "folded": true,
      "button": true
    },
    {
      "pos": "SB",
      "avatar": "ghoul_98",
      "stack_bb": 68.5,
      "villain": true
    },
    {
      "pos": "BB",
      "avatar": "ghoul_1263",
      "folded": true
    },
    {
      "pos": "UTG",
      "avatar": "ghoul_1533",
      "folded": true
    }
  ],
  "streets": [
    {
      "name": "preflop",
      "actions": [
        {
          "pos": "UTG",
          "act": "fold"
        },
        {
          "pos": "hero",
          "act": "open",
          "to_bb": 2.0
        },
        {
          "pos": "CO",
          "act": "fold"
        },
        {
          "pos": "BTN",
          "act": "fold"
        },
        {
          "pos": "SB",
          "act": "call"
        },
        {
          "pos": "BB",
          "act": "fold"
        }
      ],
      "pot_bb": 5.0
    },
    {
      "name": "flop",
      "board": [
        "Qd",
        "Th",
        "5s"
      ],
      "actions": [
        {
          "pos": "SB",
          "act": "check"
        },
        {
          "pos": "hero",
          "act": "bet",
          "to_bb": 7.5
        },
        {
          "pos": "SB",
          "act": "call"
        }
      ],
      "pot_bb": 20.0
    },
    {
      "name": "turn",
      "board": [
        "Qd",
        "Th",
        "5s",
        "7c"
      ],
      "actions": [
        {
          "pos": "SB",
          "act": "check"
        },
        {
          "pos": "hero",
          "act": "bet",
          "to_bb": 22.0
        },
        {
          "pos": "SB",
          "act": "call"
        }
      ],
      "pot_bb": 64.0
    },
    {
      "name": "river",
      "board": [
        "Qd",
        "Th",
        "5s",
        "7c",
        "2d"
      ],
      "actions": [
        {
          "pos": "SB",
          "act": "check"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "prompt": "A♠A♥ · MODEL LINE: BET BIG TWICE — ONLY 2.8% OF THE REC RANGE BEATS THE OVERPAIR ON THIS FLOP; IT CONTINUES ITS TOP 40%, THEN ITS TOP 48% (MDF VS EACH BET), AND CHECKS A BLANK RIVER — CHECK, HALF-POT, OR JAM?",
  "pot_bb": 64.0,
  "options": [
    {
      "id": "check",
      "label": "CHECK"
    },
    {
      "id": "half",
      "label": "HALF-POT"
    },
    {
      "id": "jam",
      "label": "JAM"
    }
  ],
  "correct": "jam",
  "option_feedback": {
    "check": "Checking back forfeits the third big street — the modelled range arrives only 14.6% two-pair-plus and keeps paying with the queens and tens it already called the flop and turn with.",
    "half": "Under-size — the queens and tens that call 32 also call 68.5, and at these stacks the jam is itself barely bigger than the pot: the model's own river sizing, 'slightly on the pot… kind of an equilibrium strategy'. Half just leaves 36.5 behind against a range that pays.",
    "jam": "Correct — jam 68.5 into the 64 pot, barely over a full pot. The modelled river range is 14.6% two-pair-plus — counting no new river two pair, per the model's stated simplification — so the aces jam for value and the one-pair hands pay."
  },
  "verdict_text": "So against a reg you can go pot, pot, check. Against a recreational player though — if we do the same logic over again, now on the river they only have 14 and a half percent two-pair-plus, and we can actually jam pretty easily.",
  "principle": "Big bets condense a range by what it can continue with: from 2.8% two-pair-plus on this flop, two big barrels only condense the rec range to 14.6% by the river — so the third street is a value jam. The same line against a reg arrives too strong to bet.",
  "pct_provenance": {
    "78": {
      "role": "range_composition",
      "referent": "Width of the SB caller's ASSUMED range in this model (78% VPIP) -- a hypothetical chosen in conversation, not a measured population/database figure. Applies to the whole fixture.",
      "source": "SER s417-424 (Tyler 'what type of player is this' / Eric 'let's just go unknown' / '78 VPIP'), s447-449; frame t=2130 calculator 1326 x 0.78 = 1,034.28"
    },
    "2.8": {
      "role": "range_composition",
      "referent": "Two-pair-plus share of that assumed 78% VPIP range on the Qd Th 5s flop: 29 combos (9 QT + 9 Q5 + 9 sets + 2 T5o, counted as an absolute maximum) of 1034.28 = 2.804%. The prompt phrases it as 'beats the overpair' -- on this rainbow, unconnected-enough flop no straight or flush is possible, so the hands beating AA are exactly the counted two-pair-plus combos. The base of the displayed chain 2.8% -> top 40% -> top 48% -> 14.6%. Reproducible combinatorics on a stated assumption, not a measured figure.",
      "source": "SER s450-456 ('let's start counting possible two pair combos... the absolute maximum is about 29... he has two pair plus here about 2.8 percent of the time'); frame t=2130, both calculators on screen: '1326 x 0.78 = 1,034.28' and '9 + 9 + 9 + 2 = 29'"
    },
    "40": {
      "role": "frequency",
      "referent": "Fraction of that 78% range the MODEL keeps after hero's BIG (150%-pot) flop bet -- MDF of that bet under the model's own written rule (Notepad: 'if we get called by MDF'): 5/(5+7.5) = 0.400 exactly, the divisor 0.4 in 0.028 / 0.4 = 0.07. Tyler's assumed continuation, not a solver output.",
      "source": "SER s1163 'you bet big on the flop the guy calls the top 40 of his range' (t=5720); frame t=5838 (right calculator history '0.028 / 0.4 = 0.07'); Notepad MDF rule at frame t=5790"
    },
    "48": {
      "role": "frequency",
      "referent": "Fraction of the remaining range the MODEL keeps after hero's 1.1-pot turn bet -- the Notepad betsize ladder's 'Percentile -- 1.1 Pot' rung; MDF = 20/(20+22) = 0.476, used by Tyler as 0.48 (two-digit rounding, exactly as the reg branch rounds 'three quarters pot' 0.571 to 0.58, SER s1174-1175). The divisor in 0.07 / 0.48 = 0.14583333. Read off the calculator, not spoken.",
      "source": "frame t=5838 (right calculator '0.07 / 0.48 = 0.14583333...'); frame t=5790 (Notepad ladder 'Percentile -- 1.1 Pot'; left calculator reg comparison 0.16 / 0.58)"
    },
    "14.6": {
      "role": "range_composition",
      "referent": "Share of the MODELLED SB range REMAINING AT THE RIVER that is two pair or better, after it continues top 40% flop / top 48% turn: 2.8% -> 7% -> 14.583%. The whole chain is displayed (2.8 in the prompt, 40 and 48 as the continuations), so the figure is reproducible on screen. It is NOT hero equity, NOT a solver EV, NOT a database/population magnitude -- it is combinatorics on the assumed 78% VPIP range, and it carries Tyler's stated simplification 'with no additional two pairs coming in' (s1176, stated in the reg rollout and imported to the rec branch by s1179's 'do the same logic over again'). Displayed as '14.6%' and spoken as 'fourteen and a half percent' in verdict_text.",
      "source": "SER s1180 (t=5836.82-5842.18) + frame t=5838 (right calculator '0.07 / 0.48 = 0.14583333', history '0.028 / 0.4 = 0.07'); the 2.8% combo count is SER s451-456 (29 of 1034.28 combos)"
    }
  },
  "size_claims": {
    "big (flop)": {
      "street": "flop",
      "actor": "hero",
      "chips_bb": 7.5,
      "pct_of_pot": 150,
      "basis": "The rollout's flop bet: Eric's premise 'start from the flop with an over bet' (s1158), Tyler 'you over bet flop' (s1160), 'you bet big on the flop' (s1163), Anki card A on screen t=5760 'bet big on flop'. 150% = the size whose MDF continuation is the calculator's 0.40 exactly (5/(5+7.5) = 0.400), under the model's own Notepad rule 'if we get called by MDF' (t=5790). NOT a rung in the tree -- the flop node offers 33/50/75/125%.",
      "note": "'big' is not in the validator size-word table; entry kept for honesty and recomputation."
    },
    "big (turn, 1.1 pot)": {
      "street": "turn",
      "actor": "hero",
      "chips_bb": 22.0,
      "pct_of_pot": 110,
      "basis": "The Notepad betsize ladder's 'Percentile -- 1.1 Pot' rung (frame t=5790); calculator divisor 0.48 = MDF of a 1.1-pot bet rounded to two digits (exact 20/(20+22) = 0.476; the reg branch's spoken 'three quarters pot' s1174 <-> 0.58, exact 0.571, proves the rounding). Anki card A t=5760: 'We like to barrell the turn very large as well'. The turn node's rungs are 33/50/75/125/175/250% + allin, so 110% is the model's line, not a tree branch."
    },
    "half-pot": {
      "street": "river",
      "actor": "hero",
      "chips_bb": 32.0,
      "pct_of_pot": 50,
      "basis": "The wrong-answer option: 32 into the settled 64 pot."
    },
    "half pot": {
      "street": "river",
      "actor": "hero",
      "chips_bb": 32.0,
      "pct_of_pot": 50,
      "basis": "Alias of the 'half-pot' entry — the validator's size-word table carries both spellings."
    },
    "jam (river)": {
      "street": "river",
      "actor": "hero",
      "chips_bb": 68.5,
      "pct_of_pot": 107,
      "basis": "Remaining stack 98 - 7.5 - 22 = 68.5 into the 64 pot = 107% of pot -- which is what Tyler says this model's river bet is: 'we would bet slightly on the pot... kind of an equilibrium strategy' (s1182, t=5847.8-5851.5, re-ASR'd word-level 2026-08-08). Under the retired pot/pot rendering the jam was 78 into 45 = 173%, irreconcilable with s1182."
    },
    "big (three big streets)": {
      "street": "all",
      "actor": "hero",
      "pct_of_pot": null,
      "basis": "Qualitative, Tyler's own words ('these big lines', s1184; card A 'bet big on flop... barrell the turn very large', t=5760). Quantified by the flop/turn/jam entries above."
    }
  },
  "cosmetic_invention": [
    "Hero's exact combo A♠A♥: the analysis is class-level ('aces and kings', s1081/s1100/s1121) and the board Qd Th 5s 7c is rainbow, so all six AA combos play identically; no spoken fact depends on which two aces are shown.",
    "River card 2d: Tyler names NO river. The street is staged as an illustrative blank because his 14.6% explicitly assumes 'no additional two pairs coming in' (s1176, imported to the rec branch by s1179's 'the same logic over again'). NO river card can satisfy that assumption literally -- any off-board card X gives a 78% VPIP range new two pair via QX/TX/7X/5X and a set via XX, and any board-pairing card makes trips -- so the deuce is staged as the minimal case and the simplification is surfaced to the player in option_feedback.jam ('counting no new river two pair'). The card is not dealt, not solved, and nothing on the felt depends on its identity beyond being a blank.",
    "Ghoul avatars on all seats, and the folded seats' art: the FOLDS are the node's real preflop actions (UTG f / CO f / BTN f / BB f), but the characters are decoration -- the SB seat is a RANGE, not a person, which is why it carries no name."
  ],
  "concept": "station-river-jam-value",
  "concepts_secondary": [],
  "topic": "river-value",
  "difficulty": 3,
  "decision": {
    "pot_settled_bb": 64.0,
    "bets": {}
  }
}