{
  "schema_version": "1.3",
  "table_size": 3,
  "id": "aq-nut-fd-turn-jam",
  "format": "multi_option",
  "free": true,
  "rebuild": "v2",
  "provenance_class": "dealt_hand",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-08T00:00:00Z",
  "source": {
    "session_id": "SemibluffingandEquity",
    "verdict_audio": "quiz/audio/aq-nut-fd-turn-jam.m4a",
    "lesson_slug": null,
    "ser_sentences": [893, 922, 931, 932],
    "hand_record": {
      "lane": "FRAME_READ",
      "played": "A real hand of Eric's, reviewed in-session: from t~2610 to t~2713 Eric screen-shares his PokerTracker hand replayer over Skype ('Playback' window, typed action-log pane, FLOP/TURN/RIVER transport bar) and scrubs this hand street by street; Tyler reads it live ('I see Ace Queen. A little three-bet action.' s782-783). Frames are READ-ONLY provenance — never aired (the title bar and felt carry poker-room branding).",
      "hand_id": "#465787xx — the begins-line and title-bar digits sit at the legibility floor of the 1186x720 capture; prefix read at 10-20x temporal-averaged crops (2026-08-08). Date line shape '2024/0x/xx …pm'; the session itself is dated 07/02/24 by the on-screen taskbar clock.",
      "stake": {
        "source": "Replayer title bar at t=2618: 'Playback for <room> Hand #465787xx - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem' (temporal-averaged 10x/20x crops re-read 2026-08-08; the room name is withheld from this fixture per the no-operator-branding policy and recorded only in the audit trail).",
        "usd_per_bb": 1.0,
        "note": "bb-NATIVE fixture: the replayer is set to BB display — every amount here is read in BB directly off the felt chips, plates and pot boxes; NO $-to-bb conversion was performed anywhere. Independent cross-check of the $1 NL reading: felt banner 'Avg Stack: $106' vs the three hand-start stacks read in BB, (112.87 + 103.78 + 100.00)/3 = 105.55 BB, is consistent at $1.00/bb and at no other stake."
      },
      "frames": [
        "cache/SemibluffingandEquity.mp4 t=2618 — preflop mid-state: dealer disc at the top seat (P6-0c95dd9f7…) with 2.50 BB out, hero (bottom) 12.50 BB out, left seat (P5-5c265f413…) 1 BB out, 'Pot: 16 BB'; plates P6 110.37 BB / P5 99 BB / Hero 91.28 BB; hero cards A Q; felt banner 'Avg Stack: $106'; exactly three seats dealt on the 6-max layout",
        "cache/SemibluffingandEquity.mp4 t=2622 — preflop settled: P6 labelled CALL with 12.50 BB out, P5 labelled FOLD, 'Pot: 26 BB' (12.50 + 12.50 + 1 dead)",
        "cache/SemibluffingandEquity.mp4 t=2630 — flop 9 5 4: hero labelled BET with 8.10 BB out, centre disc 26 BB, 'Pot: 34.10 BB', P6 100.37 BB (112.87 − 12.50)",
        "cache/SemibluffingandEquity.mp4 t=2662 — flop raise: P6 chips out '20.20 BB', 'Pot: 54.30 BB', P6 80.17 BB behind, hero 83.18 BB behind (91.28 − 8.10)",
        "cache/SemibluffingandEquity.mp4 t=2700 — turn start: board 9 5 4 8, centre disc 66.40 BB, 'Pot: 66.40 BB', P6 80.17 BB, hero 71.08 BB (83.18 − 12.10 flop-call completion)",
        "cache/SemibluffingandEquity.mp4 t=2694 — THE DECISION NODE (8x chip/plate zooms re-read 2026-08-08): P6 bet chip '32.20 BB', 'Pot: 98.60 BB', P6 plate '47.97 BB', hero plate '71.08 BB', replayer odds line 'Odds: 3.06:1 - 25%'",
        "cache/SemibluffingandEquity.mp4 t=2693 — board + hole-card zooms on the 4-colour deck: board 9/5/8 on the dark spade colour (spade glyphs legible on the board cards), 4 on the blue diamond colour; hero A on the dark spade colour, Q on the green club colour",
        "cache/SemibluffingandEquity.mp4 t=2945 — first verdict anchor (s893 'So the jam here just makes money…'): screen is GTO Wizard grid + Windows Calculator (history '200 × 0.2 = 40', '40 - 75 = -35', '-35 × 0.66 + 98 × 0.33 = 9.24') + Notepad ('AsQd --> Has the nuts here between 18-20% of the time on the river.' / '20% equity.' / '75 to win 98')",
        "cache/SemibluffingandEquity.mp4 t=3067 — second verdict anchor (s931-932 'Cause you have so much equity when called…'): GTO Wizard turn node on 9 5 4 8, current node 'SB — Fold / Call / Allin 58', Snipping-Tool range sketch overlaid",
        "cache/SemibluffingandEquity.mp4 t=2822 — GTO Wizard tree strip: '…SB Raise 12 … FLOP 9 5 4, SB Bet 8.25 / BTN Raise 30 / SB Call, TURN 8, Check / Bet 17 / Bet 28.05 / Allin 58' — the 'Bet 28.05' node is the provenance of the v1 fixture's phantom 28 BB turn bet (Tyler s856 'this guy does this 28 thing' is about this SOLVER node; the felt bet is 32.20)",
        "cache/SemibluffingandEquity.mp4 t=3150 — Tyler's population aggregate report ('Called 3bet: Raise | Bet [IP,HU]'; its 'Next actions' FCR line carries the measured frequencies), opened AFTER the verdict — the measured figures live here and are edge-gated: never displayed, never aired, and not transcribed into this fixture (rule 7). The 0.33 fold input in Tyler's on-screen Calculator is independently his spoken in-session assumption (s886-887 'let's say a third of the time') and solver-reproducible (the Wizard BTN response tile at t=3067 shows Fold 33.3%)"
      ],
      "log_verbatim": [
        "LEGIBILITY NOTE: the action-log pane is shape-level at this capture resolution (temporal-averaged 9x crops); every amount below is cross-anchored to a crisp felt element (chip text, plate, pot box) before being asserted. Anonymized seat IDs from the plates: P6-0c95dd9f7… (dealer/BTN, disc on every frame), P5-5c265f413… (BB).",
        "P6-0c95dd9f7… raises to 2.50 BB   [felt: 2.50 chip + dealer disc, t=2618]",
        "Hero raises to 12.50 BB           [felt: 12.50 chip, t=2618; hero acts between the open and the BB's fold => hero posted the SB]",
        "P5-5c265f413… folds               [felt: FOLD label, 1 BB left dead, t=2622]",
        "P6-0c95dd9f7… calls 10 BB         [felt: CALL label, 2.50 -> 12.50, 'Pot: 26 BB', t=2622]",
        "Flop [9s 5s 4d]                   [felt: 4-colour board, t=2630/2693]",
        "Hero bets 8.10 BB                 [felt: BET label + 8.10 chip, 'Pot: 34.10 BB', t=2630]",
        "P6-0c95dd9f7… raises to 20.20 BB  [felt: 20.20 chips, 'Pot: 54.30 BB', stack 100.37 -> 80.17, t=2662]",
        "Hero calls 12.10 BB               [felt: stack 83.18 -> 71.08 across the street break, t=2662/2700]",
        "Turn [8s]                         [felt: fourth card, spade colour + glyph, t=2694/2693]",
        "Hero checks                       [log line + forced by position: turn opens with no hero chips out (t=2700) and the OOP hero must act first; Tyler s876 'you can look at this as the check jam']",
        "P6-0c95dd9f7… bets 32.20 BB       [felt: '32.20 BB' chip zoom, 'Pot: 98.60 BB', plate 47.97 BB, t=2694]"
      ],
      "seat_derivation": "Only THREE of the six seats are dealt (title bar says '(6 max)'; the felt shows exactly three occupied ovals on every frame). Dealer disc sits at P6's seat on every frame => P6 = BTN. P5 has 1 BB posted => BB. Hero acts between the BTN's open and the BB's fold and has 12.50 out => hero = SB 3-bettor, OUT OF POSITION for the whole hand. Rendered exactly 3-handed. The v1 fixture's 6-handed felt (hero on the BTN in position against a CO opener, invented UTG/HJ folds) inverted the entire spot — the real decision is an OOP check-facing-a-barrel, Tyler's 'check jam' (s876).",
      "villain_read": "'BOT' is Tyler's stated on-tape read on THIS opponent: 'this guy's clearly a bot' (s813), 'he's clearly a bot based on the size of these games' (s824). A read on one opponent at an anonymous-pool table, cited to the tape — not population data. The v1 fixture's 'REG' label was invented and is removed.",
      "stacks": "Hand-start: BTN 112.87 BB (110.37 plate + 2.50 out, t=2618), hero 103.78 BB (91.28 + 12.50; HUD line rounds it to '104 BB'), BB 100.00 BB (99 + 1). At the decision: hero 71.08 BB behind (plate zoom, t=2694) = 103.78 − 12.50 − 20.20; villain 47.97 BB behind (plate zoom) = 112.87 − 12.50 − 20.20 − 32.20. Every intermediate plate reconciles (100.37 / 80.17 / 83.18).",
      "result": "Not shown and not narrated: the share window ends at t≈2714 (Tyler's own desktop replaces the replayer) with the replay parked on the 32.20 BB bet, and no sentence states what Eric did in game. The fixture ends at the decision node and narrates no result.",
      "verdict_screens": "At both verdict anchors (t=2945, t=3067) the shared screen is Tyler's solver/notepad workspace, not the felt — the ruling is about Eric's played hand (Notepad names it: 'AsQd --> Has the nuts here between 18-20% of the time on the river.' / '75 to win 98', matching the felt pot 98.60), but every number displayed by THIS fixture comes from the replayer pixels, not from the GTO Wizard tree, whose sizings Tyler himself flags as approximate ('we don't have the right bet sizing' s841, 'there's no sizing scheme there' s863)."
    }
  },
  "context": "$1 NL ONLINE · 6-MAX TABLE, 3 DEALT · SB vs BTN 3-BET POT",
  "hero": {
    "pos": "SB",
    "cards": [
      "As",
      "Qc"
    ],
    "stack_bb": 71.08,
    "avatar": "lono_ghoul",
    "button": false
  },
  "seats": [
    {
      "pos": "BB",
      "avatar": "ghoul_2337",
      "folded": true
    },
    {
      "pos": "BTN",
      "avatar": "ghoul_3838",
      "name": "BOT",
      "stack_bb": 47.97,
      "villain": true,
      "button": true
    }
  ],
  "streets": [
    {
      "name": "preflop",
      "actions": [
        {
          "pos": "BTN",
          "act": "open",
          "to_bb": 2.5
        },
        {
          "pos": "hero",
          "act": "3bet",
          "to_bb": 12.5
        },
        {
          "pos": "BB",
          "act": "fold"
        },
        {
          "pos": "BTN",
          "act": "call"
        }
      ],
      "pot_bb": 26
    },
    {
      "name": "flop",
      "board": [
        "9s",
        "5s",
        "4d"
      ],
      "actions": [
        {
          "pos": "hero",
          "act": "bet",
          "to_bb": 8.1
        },
        {
          "pos": "BTN",
          "act": "raise",
          "to_bb": 20.2
        },
        {
          "pos": "hero",
          "act": "call"
        }
      ],
      "pot_bb": 66.4
    },
    {
      "name": "turn",
      "board": [
        "9s",
        "5s",
        "4d",
        "8s"
      ],
      "actions": [
        {
          "pos": "hero",
          "act": "check"
        },
        {
          "pos": "BTN",
          "act": "bet",
          "to_bb": 32.2
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "prompt": "A♠Q♣ · BARE A♠ NUT DRAW, THREE SPADES ON BOARD · THE BOT BETS 32.20 INTO 66.40 — JAM, CALL OR FOLD?",
  "pot_bb": 98.6,
  "options": [
    {
      "id": "jam",
      "label": "JAM"
    },
    {
      "id": "call",
      "label": "CALL"
    },
    {
      "id": "fold",
      "label": "FOLD"
    }
  ],
  "correct": "jam",
  "option_feedback": {
    "jam": "Correct — the jam here just makes money, and the driver is what happens when he CALLS: the bare A♠ makes the stone nuts on the last card 18-20% of the time (Tyler counts it out at the table), so the jam is never drawing dead — and since there's no real spot where bluffs don't exist, his folds are pure profit on top.",
    "call": "Tyler's first look at the turn was exactly this — 'just call turn, it has to be plus money.' But when he runs the hand back, the check-jam is the play: you keep everything the call keeps AND you put a fold decision in front of him, and his solver check agrees — 'that's just exactly what the solver does here… the blocker effects are really pronounced.'",
    "fold": "Too strong a hand to surrender. Tyler's own contrast case is jamming a zero-equity hand in this spot — THAT one is a disaster. The bare A♠ is the opposite: it makes the nuts often enough when called, it blocks some of his value range, and every single distribution has some fold frequency. This combo takes advantage of that really nicely."
  },
  "verdict_text": "The jam here just makes money, because you have so much equity when called — that's really the driver. There's no real spot where bluffs don't exist.",
  "principle": "Fold equity always exists — there's no real spot where bluffs don't exist — so a nut-card draw jams the turn: his folds are profit, and the A♠ keeps you live the times he calls.",
  "concept": "fold-equity-always-exists",
  "concepts_secondary": [],
  "topic": "semi-bluffing",
  "difficulty": 5,
  "aired_transcript": "The jam here just makes money because you have so much equity when called. That's really the driver here, Eric. Oh, there's no real spot where bluffs don't exist.",
  "aired_transcript_note": "Verbatim small.en re-ASR of quiz/audio/aq-nut-fd-turn-jam.m4a (9.84s, re-cut + re-run 2026-08-08). Beats: w7353-7359 (s893 head 'So the jam here just makes money' — the ASR absorbs the low-conf 'So') + s931-932 + w7599-7606 (s922's clean restart; the leading 'Oh,' is the ASR's rendering of the residual 'no,' pickup before the restart). The old clip's s893 tail — an unintelligible garble ('that's full stern', conf .44/.45) plus a spoken fold-frequency estimate — is dropped: the estimate's measured basis is the population report at t=3150 (rule 7). No cards, no positions, no sizes and no percentages are aired.",
  "pct_provenance": {
    "18-20": {
      "role": "outcome_frequency",
      "referent": "how often the bare A♠ completes the nut flush on the final card, counted from the turn — an outcome frequency of the runout, NOT hero's equity against a calling range and NOT a population figure",
      "source": "spoken s869 'Ace Queen basically has the nuts here between 18 and 20% of the time'; Tyler's on-screen Notepad at t=2945 'AsQd --> Has the nuts here between 18-20% of the time on the river.'; card math: 9 unseen spades / 46 unseen cards = 19.6%"
    }
  },
  "size_claims": {
    "_note": "No size adjective appears in any displayed string or in the aired clip. Entries document the real bets read off the replayer felt.",
    "open to 2.5": {
      "street": "preflop",
      "actor": "BTN",
      "to_bb": 2.5,
      "source": "felt chip '2.50 BB' + dealer disc, t=2618"
    },
    "3-bet to 12.5": {
      "street": "preflop",
      "actor": "hero (SB)",
      "to_bb": 12.5,
      "source": "felt chip '12.50 BB', t=2618; 'Pot: 26 BB' after the call, t=2622"
    },
    "flop bet 8.10": {
      "street": "flop",
      "actor": "hero (SB)",
      "to_bb": 8.1,
      "pct_of_pot": 31.2,
      "source": "felt BET 8.10 into the settled 26 BB ('Pot: 34.10 BB'), t=2630"
    },
    "flop raise to 20.20": {
      "street": "flop",
      "actor": "BTN",
      "to_bb": 20.2,
      "source": "felt chips '20.20 BB' ('Pot: 54.30 BB'), t=2662 — a 2.5x raise of the 8.10 bet; NOT the GTO Wizard tree's 'Raise 30'"
    },
    "turn barrel 32.20": {
      "street": "turn",
      "actor": "BTN",
      "to_bb": 32.2,
      "pct_of_pot": 48.5,
      "source": "felt chip zoom '32.20 BB' into the settled 66.40 BB ('Pot: 98.60 BB'), t=2694 — NOT the 28 of the v1 fixture, which was the Wizard node 'Bet 28.05' (t=2822)"
    }
  },
  "claims": [
    {
      "text": "the decision price: BTN bets 32.20 into 66.40; a call is 32.20 to win 98.60",
      "lhs": "hero's price at the node",
      "op": "=",
      "rhs": "32.20 / (98.60 + 32.20) = 24.6% breakeven; the replayer itself prints 'Odds: 3.06:1 - 25%'",
      "source": "pixels t=2694 (chip, pot box, odds line); arithmetic recomputed"
    },
    {
      "text": "pot chain: 26 preflop -> 66.40 turn-start -> 98.60 facing",
      "lhs": "recomputed street pots",
      "op": "=",
      "rhs": "12.50×2 + 1 dead = 26; 26 + 8.10 + 20.20 + 12.10 = 66.40; + 32.20 = 98.60",
      "source": "every on-screen pot box matches: 16 (t=2618), 26 (t=2622), 34.10 (t=2630), 54.30 (t=2662), 66.40 (t=2700), 98.60 (t=2694)"
    },
    {
      "text": "the jam risks 71.08 to win 98.60 (Tyler rounds it to '75 to win 98' at the table)",
      "lhs": "hero's remaining stack at the decision",
      "op": "=",
      "rhs": "71.08 BB behind (plate zoom t=2694) = 103.78 start − 12.50 − 20.20; villain's 47.97 behind covers the 38.88 more a call requires",
      "source": "pixels t=2694/t=2700; spoken s877-882 ('risk what? 75 to win… How much was in that pot?' — Eric: '98'); Notepad t=2945 '75 to win 98'"
    },
    {
      "text": "the aired 'just makes money' is Tyler's own single-hand EV model, run on screen with rounded inputs",
      "lhs": "Calculator history at t=2945",
      "op": "=",
      "rhs": "'200 × 0.2 = 40' (≈208.6 final pot × the Notepad's 20% equity), '40 - 75 = -35' (net when called at his rounded 75 risk), '-35 × 0.66 + 98 × 0.33 = 9.24' (+9 bb). Illustrative single-hand EV math with his in-session fold assumption; neither the assumption nor the result is displayed or aired",
      "source": "pixels t=2945; spoken s884-893"
    },
    {
      "text": "the spot is the check-jam: hero checked and faces the barrel",
      "lhs": "turn action structure",
      "op": "=",
      "rhs": "log 'Hero checks' before the 32.20 bet; turn opens with no hero chips out (t=2700) and the OOP hero acts first",
      "source": "pixels t=2700/t=2694; spoken s876 'you can look at this as the check jam'"
    }
  ],
  "unverifiable_claims": [
    "Hole-card SUIT GLYPHS sit below the compression floor at 1186x720. The read A♠Q♣ rests on the 4-colour card backgrounds (the A shares the dark spade colour of the 9/5/8 board cards, whose glyphs ARE legible; the Q is the club green, distinct from the 4♦'s diamond blue), on Tyler's Notepad 'AsQd' (independently fixing the load-bearing A♠), and on his counterexample 'you randomly jamming ace king of hearts here is not going to do any good things' (s939), which only works if the board's flush suit is not hearts. The Notepad's 'Qd' disagrees with the felt's green Q — pixels outrank the typed note, and either way the Q is NOT a spade, which is the load-bearing fact (bare one-card nut draw).",
    "Hand id and date: '#465787xx' prefix and '2024/0x/xx' shape only — the begins-line sits at the legibility floor; disclosed rather than asserted.",
    "The 'BOT' villain label is Tyler's stated read on this real opponent (s813 'this guy's clearly a bot'; s824 'clearly a bot based on the size of these games'), not a verifiable fact about the account and not population data.",
    "The action-log pane transcription is shape-level at this resolution; every amount in log_verbatim is asserted only where a crisp felt element (chip text, plate, pot box) confirms it — the anchors are listed line by line.",
    "Hero's in-game action and the hand's result are unknown: the share ends with the replay parked on the 32.20 BB bet and no sentence narrates the outcome. The fixture and its feedback narrate no result."
  ],
  "cosmetic_invention": [
    "Ghoul avatars (lono_ghoul hero, ghoul_3838 BTN, ghoul_2337 BB) — art only; the room shows anonymized IDs (P6-0c95dd9f7…, P5-5c265f413…).",
    "The villain's display name 'BOT' — the rendered label for Tyler's on-tape read (s813/s824); the room shows only the anonymized ID.",
    "Position LABELS SB/BB/BTN — derived, not printed on the felt: dealer disc at P6's seat on every frame, P5 posts the 1 BB, hero acts between the open and the BB's fold (see seat_derivation).",
    "NOTHING else is invented: the 3-handed structure, the suits, every size, every stack and the turn check are the pixels' own. The v1 fixture's re-dealt hearts board (A♥Q♥ on 9♥5♥4♣ 8♠), 6-max ring with invented UTG/HJ folds, in-position BTN hero vs a CO 'REG', and 28 BB turn bet (the Wizard node 'Bet 28.05') are all removed."
  ],
  "decision": {
    "pot_settled_bb": 66.4,
    "bets": {
      "BTN": 32.2
    }
  }
}