{ "schema_version": "1.3", "table_size": 6, "id": "fold-second-pair-vs-rec-3q-river", "format": "call_fold", "free": true, "rebuild": "v2", "provenance_class": "dealt_hand", "updated_at": "2026-08-08T00:00:00Z", "source": { "session_id": "2025-11-03", "verdict_audio": "quiz/audio/fold-second-pair-vs-rec-3q-river.m4a", "lesson_slug": null, "hand_record": { "lane": "TAPE_SKELETON", "played": "A real hand from the student's own play, reviewed from Tyler's watch-through of the session recordings (s45 'at least three instances kind of pop into my mind... I don't think I wrote down the timestamp'; s108-s110 he watched the files). No replayer, live table or hand number is ever on screen for it — Tyler types his own record of the hand into Notepad and rebuilds the ranges in HoldEq while he talks.", "hand_id": null, "stake": { "source": "NONE", "usd_per_bb": null, "note": "bb-only fixture (G2). No title bar, table screen or spoken stake attaches to this hand anywhere in the window; no dollar figure ships." }, "frames": [ "t=447 (scratchpad dh1/fold-second-pair-vs-rec-3q-river/frames/f_447.png) — Notepad (Tyler's typed hand record, Ln 14 Col 55) + HoldEq v1.1.8: Range 1 'AJs-A2s,K2s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s,AQo-A2o,54o,[5...' Equity 83.964% / Win 83.964% / Tie 0.000%; Range 2 'QJs' Equity 16.036%; Board 'AhJcTs2h2d'; Dead empty (so 16.036% is the QJs CLASS average, not one combo)", "t=490 (f_490.png) — same Notepad; HoldEq Range 2 now 'A3o' Equity 43.151% (Range 1 56.849%); Snipping Tool sketch: hand-drawn red equity graph with y-axis marks '43' and '16' and a cutoff between them — the s91 'this is 16... this is 43... the cutoff for calling' drawing", "t=555 (f_555.png) — Notepad complete and fully readable (transcribed below); HoldEq switched to the s97-s99 COUNTERFACTUAL: Board 'AhTs6d2h2d' (the river J swapped for a 6), Range 2 '65s' Equity 29.703% — corroborates that the real river was the J", "negative-scan contact sheets scan/sheet1-3.png (20s stride, t=180-640)" ], "log_verbatim": [ "NOTEPAD (Tyler's typed record of this hand, frame t=555, verbatim incl. typos): 'Preflop looked reasonable / It felt like you were choosing I wouldn't mainly postflop / QJs -- Isolate somebody - bet biggish on AT2 the turn 2 and the river J and he bet's 3/4 pot and you call. / Most recs mainly call Axo pure against raise so Ax over-represented, when you bet big on the flop -- narrows range to draws and pairs. / so on river basically 54, 43s, 53s are likely the only busted draws and players usually bet big with either top pair+ or busted draws. Very few players bet this sizing with 2nd pair. / So if we assume a polarized range, we aren't going to ahve enough equity. / I want to call hands that have greater than 25% equity against bluffing range.'", "HOLDEQ t=447: Range 1 = 'AJs-A2s,K2s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s,AQo-A2o,54o,[5...' (tail cut by field width; at t=490 the scrolled tail reads '...54o,[50]KQs,KQo[/50...' — the s75 down-weighted KQ) -> 83.964% | Range 2 = 'QJs' -> 16.036% | Board 'AhJcTs2h2d' | Dead empty", "HOLDEQ t=490: Range 2 = 'A3o' -> 43.151% | Range 1 -> 56.849%", "HOLDEQ t=555 (counterfactual, not this hand's runout): Board 'AhTs6d2h2d', Range 2 = '65s' -> 29.703%", "SNIPPING TOOL t=490/t=555: red freehand graph, y-axis labelled '43' (top) and '16' (lower) with cutoff ticks between" ], "spoken_skeleton": [ {"fact": "hero holds QJ suited", "sids": [46, 78], "second_instance": "Notepad 'QJs' + HoldEq Range 2 'QJs' (pixels, t=447)"}, {"fact": "hero isolates a limper preflop ('you had Queen Jack... you isolate / Somebody'); Tyler approves the preflop", "sids": [46, 47], "second_instance": "Notepad 'QJs -- Isolate somebody' + 'Preflop looked reasonable'"}, {"fact": "hero bets the flop 'reasonably big' / 'biggish'", "sids": [47, 48, 57], "second_instance": "Notepad 'bet biggish on AT2' + 'when you bet big on the flop'"}, {"fact": "flop is A-T-2", "sids": [48, 79, 80], "second_instance": "Notepad 'AT2'; HoldEq board ranks A/T (t=447)"}, {"fact": "turn is a deuce", "sids": [50, 80], "second_instance": "Notepad 'the turn 2'; HoldEq board has two deuces"}, {"fact": "river is a jack", "sids": [50, 80], "second_instance": "Notepad 'the river J'; HoldEq 'Jc', removed for the t=555 six-counterfactual"}, {"fact": "villain leads the river for three-quarters pot; hero called in game", "sids": [50], "second_instance": "Notepad 'he bet's 3/4 pot and you call.'"}, {"fact": "villain is read only as a recreational ('without extra information about a recreational player'; 'most recs')", "sids": [84, 53]}, {"fact": "ruling: fold — 'he just always has an ace'; 'very few players bet this sizing with second pair'; polarized range -> 'we aren't going to have enough equity'; 'you call an ace you fold everything else'; QJ 'in pretty bad shape'", "sids": [52, 66, 68, 69, 90, 81], "second_instance": "Notepad paragraphs 4-7"}, {"fact": "mechanism: recs mainly call A-x offsuit pre against raises so ace-x is over-represented ('they play a lot of offsuit aces'); the big flop bet narrows him to draws and pairs; on this river 54, 43s, 53s are likely the only busted draws; players bet big with top pair+ or busted draws", "sids": [53, 54, 55, 95, 57, 58, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65], "second_instance": "Notepad paragraphs 4-5"}, {"fact": "call bar: 'I want to call hands that have greater than usually it's 25% equity' (generic threshold, below this pot's exact 30% price; not displayed or aired)", "sids": [86, 87, 88], "second_instance": "Notepad last line"} ], "negative_scan": "20s-stride sweep t=180-640 (scan/sheet1-3.png): the screen is Notepad + HoldEq + a Snipping Tool sketch throughout the hand's discussion; no felt, no replayer, no title bar. First felt after the window is t≈620-640 — VLC being opened on a DIFFERENT hand ('let me roll back to the previous one', s110-s112; the ace-king-of-diamonds hand at s120). s45: Tyler never wrote down this hand's timestamp." } }, "context": "6-MAX CASH · vs A RECREATIONAL LIMPER", "hero": { "pos": "BB", "cards": [ "Qh", "Jh" ], "avatar": "lono_ghoul" }, "seats": [ { "pos": "UTG", "avatar": "ghoul_282", "folded": true }, { "pos": "HJ", "avatar": "ghoul_2700", "folded": true }, { "pos": "CO", "avatar": "ghoul_5166", "folded": true }, { "pos": "BTN", "avatar": "ghoul_2073", "folded": true, "button": true }, { "pos": "SB", "avatar": "ghoul_2369", "name": "REC", "villain": true } ], "streets": [ { "name": "preflop", "actions": [ { "pos": "UTG", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "HJ", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "CO", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "BTN", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "SB", "act": "call" }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "raise", "to_bb": 4 }, { "pos": "SB", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 8 }, { "name": "flop", "board": [ "Ad", "Tc", "2s" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "SB", "act": "check" }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 6 }, { "pos": "SB", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 20 }, { "name": "turn", "board": [ "Ad", "Tc", "2s", "2h" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "SB", "act": "check" }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "check" } ] }, { "name": "river", "board": [ "Ad", "Tc", "2s", "2h", "Jc" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "SB", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 15 } ] } ], "prompt": "Q♥J♥ · SECOND PAIR · THE REC FIRES ¾ POT ON THE RIVER — CALL OR FOLD?", "pot_bb": 35, "options": [ { "id": "call", "label": "CALL" }, { "id": "fold", "label": "FOLD" } ], "correct": "fold", "option_feedback": { "call": "It looks like a bluff-catch, but count his bluffs: on this river 5-4, 4-3 suited and 5-3 suited are about the only busted draws, and a rec's calling range is stacked with offsuit aces. The big bets are almost all top pair or better.", "fold": "Correct — players bet big here with either top pair-plus or a busted draw, and this board busted almost nothing. He just always has an ace: you call an ace, you fold everything else." }, "verdict_text": "He just always has an ace. Very few players bet this sizing with second pair — so if we assume a polarized range, we aren't going to have enough equity.", "principle": "A big river bet from a rec is top pair-plus or a busted draw. Recs call lots of offsuit aces, and this board busted almost nothing — so second pair is a fold.", "concept": "fold-second-pair-rec-polarized-river", "concepts_secondary": [], "topic": "river-defense", "difficulty": 4, "aired_transcript": "But he just always has an ace. Very few players bet this size in a second pair. So if we assume a polarized range, we aren't going to have enough equity.", "aired_transcript_note": "Verbatim small.en re-ASR of quiz/audio/fold-second-pair-vs-rec-3q-river.m4a (17.2s, beats s52 / s66 / s68-s69, re-run 2026-08-08). 'But' = clip-head ASR variant of tape 'Like' (conf 0.23); 'this size in a second pair' = 'this sizing with second pair'; ~5s of tape silence is retained between 'range,' and 'we aren't' (the s68->s69 gap, 315.3-320.1 on tape). No cards, streets, sizes or percentages aired.", "pct_provenance": {}, "size_claims": { "¾ pot": { "street": "river", "actor": "SB", "pct_of_pot": 75.0, "source": "spoken s50 'he bets three-quarters pot' + Notepad 'he bet's 3/4 pot' (frame t=555). Displayed as 15 bb into 20 bb = exactly 75%; the bb scaffold was chosen so the one spoken ratio renders exactly." }, "bet big (river, feedback/principle)": { "street": "river", "actor": "SB", "pct_of_pot": 75.0, "source": "s63-s65 'players usually bet big with either top pair plus or busted draws' + Notepad paragraph 5 — Tyler's own descriptor for this river sizing." }, "biggish (flop c-bet, not displayed)": { "street": "flop", "actor": "hero", "pct_of_pot": 75.0, "source": "s47 'reasonably big' / s48 'ish on flop' / s57 'when you bet big on flop' + Notepad 'bet biggish on AT2'. Adjective is sourced; the 6-into-8 number is disclosed scaffolding inside the band the adjective allows." } }, "claims": [ { "text": "the rec fires ¾ pot on the river", "lhs": "SB river lead", "op": "=", "rhs": "15 bb into the 20 bb pot = 75.0% of pot", "source": "s50; Notepad 'he bet's 3/4 pot' (t=555)" }, { "text": "preflop: SB limps, hero isolates to 4 bb (displayed)", "lhs": "preflop scaffold", "op": "=", "rhs": "limp + iso-raise + call = 8 bb pot, heads-up, villain out of position", "source": "shape from s46-s47 + Notepad 'QJs -- Isolate somebody' + 'Preflop looked reasonable'; the 4 bb size and the blind-vs-blind seats are disclosed staging (see cosmetic_invention)" }, { "text": "price at the decision (not displayed, recorded for I1 coherence)", "lhs": "call 15 bb into 35 bb", "op": "=", "rhs": "30% required equity — above Tyler's stated 'greater than 25% equity' call bar (s86-s88, Notepad), with his HoldEq screen putting QJs at 16.036% vs the range he assigns (t=447) and a weak ace A3o at 43.151% (t=490, the s91 '16 / 43 / cutoff' sketch) — fold is coherent at any scaffold scale because every displayed number is a fixed multiple of the spoken ¾-pot ratio", "source": "s86-s88, s90, s91, s81; HoldEq frames t=447/t=490" } ], "unverifiable_claims": [ "The turn going check-check is never spoken or typed — Tyler's record jumps from the flop bet to the river lead ('bet biggish on AT2 the turn 2 and the river J and he bet's 3/4 pot'). A checked-through turn is the minimal line consistent with that record and is disclosed staging.", "No absolute chip amount exists for this hand anywhere on tape or screen (no stake, no table, no replayer; negative scan t=180-640; s45 'I don't think I wrote down the timestamp'). Every bb figure is scaffolding scaled to the two sourced ratios (river = exactly ¾ pot; flop bet = 'biggish'). The fixture is bb-only (G2) and no stacks are displayed because none are sourced.", "The showdown is not on tape. Hero's actual in-game action was call (s50; Notepad 'and you call.') — the review grades that call a fold; the quiz ends at the decision." ], "cosmetic_invention": [ "Seat positions and the 6-max ring (villain SB open-limp, hero BB isolation raise, four folds). The tape fixes only: one limper, hero isolates, heads-up postflop, villain acting first on every street (he checks the flop and leads the river). Blind-vs-blind was chosen so the displayed river bet is exactly the spoken three-quarters pot in whole big blinds; no spoken fact depends on which seats they were.", "All suits (hero Q♥J♥; board A♦T♣2♠ 2♥ J♣). Tape and Notepad give ranks only (QJs; A-T-2, turn 2, river J). Constraint honored: the flop renders rainbow and no flush is possible by the river, because Tyler's bluff census — '54, 43s, 53s are likely the only busted draws' (s61-s62, Notepad) — is false of any board with a flush draw. The suits in HoldEq's Board field ('AhJcTs2h2d', t=447) are Tyler's own arbitrary entry for the equity calc, typed without street order — not the hand's suits.", "Preflop iso to 4 bb and flop c-bet 6 bb (75%): numbers scaffolded inside the sourced adjectives/ratios above; only the ratios are tape.", "Avatars (art only): hero lono_ghoul; ghoul_282 / ghoul_2700 / ghoul_5166 / ghoul_2073 folded seats; villain ghoul_2369.", "The villain label 'REC' is NOT invented: Tyler rules 'without extra information about a recreational player' (s84) and reasons from 'most recs' (s53); the prior fixture's 'FISH' name is dropped for the spoken word." ], "decision": { "pot_settled_bb": 20, "bets": { "SB": 15 } } }