{ "schema_version": "1.3", "rebuild": "v2", "provenance_class": "dealt_hand", "table_size": 6, "id": "fold-trip-jacks-to-overbet-jam", "format": "call_fold", "free": true, "updated_at": "2026-08-08T00:00:00Z", "source": { "session_id": "HandReview", "verdict_audio": "quiz/audio/fold-trip-jacks-to-overbet-jam.m4a", "verdict_beats": "s1055 (t=5154.5-5156.8, 'I feel like we fold.') + s1056 (t=5158.3-5161.2, 'In fact, I'm fairly comfortable that this is a fold in practice'), cut as one continuous span with the natural ~1.5 s pause between the beats retained (verified 2026-08-08: word-level re-ASR of the m4a places 'fold' at 2.44 s and 'in fact' at 2.44-4.40 s; raw-tape ASR finds no words in the 5156.8-5158.1 gap, so nothing foreign airs), 7.0 s — the beats already registered in tools/cut_quiz_audio.py (s1093 was dropped there 2026-08-03: it rules on a DIFFERENT hand, the squeeze-pot review that starts at s1082 'Big ol squeeze'). Echo-checked 2026-08-08 (faster-whisper small.en): re-ASR of the shipped m4a returns 'I feel like I feel like we fold in fact. I'm fairly comfortable that this is a fold in practice' — both intended sentences, no s1093, no Eric. The doubled 'I feel like' is Tyler's own false start on the tape inside s1055's bounds (word-level ASR of raw 5152-5162: 'i feel like that's only like i feel like we fold'); SER packs the stutter into word 12369 ('like', 5154.95-5156.35), so no word-ID cut can isolate the clean restart — the clip is kept and the display text follows SER's sentence text per convention.", "lesson_slug": null, "hand_record": { "record_type": "typed hand history — Tyler's own Two Plus Two forum post, full-screen in the browser for the whole verdict window ('Okay, so here's a hand I posted a couple months ago', s1049, t=5115.9). Not a replayer, not a solver: no tracker, range grid or tree appears on screen anywhere in t=5108-5200.", "stake": "[MICRO] tag in the thread title + subforum breadcrumb 'Poker Strategy > Online No-Limit Hold'em Cash' (own frame m_5128). Every amount in the post is native big blinds ('We are 100bbs effective', 'he jams 75 more big blinds'); no currency figure appears anywhere on screen and no $-to-bb conversion was performed.", "hand_id": "none shown (typed post, not a tracker export). Thread id 1822612 from the address bar: forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69/online-no-limit-holdem-cash/qcjs-jc-9d-4s-jh-kc-facing-jam-1822612/ (own frames m_5128, m_5155).", "thread_title": "[MICRO] QcJs on Jc 9d 4s Jh Kc facing jam (page heading + browser tab, own frame m_5128, t=5128)", "poster": "Post #1 by 'Bozemanite' (05-23-2023 04:30 PM). The logged-in account in the forum header is Bozemanite (own frame m_5128, top right) and Tyler introduces the thread as 'a hand I posted' (s1049) — hero is Tyler himself.", "log_verbatim": [ "Button raises preflop. We are 100bbs effective. I call from the Big Blind with QcJs.", "I check/call 1/3rd Pot on Jc 9d 4s", "Turn is Jh", "Check/Check", "River is a Kc", "I bet 150% of pot, he jams 75 more big blinds.", "Call or Fold?" ], "replies_verbatim": { "post2_YanasaurBBQ": "Jamming over your overbet as a bluff is a play I wouldnt expect hardly anyone to find so pretty easy fold. / I wouldnt go so big on the river bet bc I expect a lot of people can find a fold even with a king for 150% pot. I would go for 1/2 looking to get calls 9x, Kx, and other pps (own frames m_5128/m_5155; Tyler reads the first line aloud at s1059)", "post3_L94E": "value range 'when he bet this size?': 'AJ maybe, Straight, boat'; bluff candidates 'Q4, Q9, maybe KQ but probably KQ is to strong to turn into bluff'; conclusion: '...even if Villan is capable of making some bluff here, probably QJ should fold' (own frames m_5155/m_5185; Tyler reads the conclusion aloud at s1060-1061: 'Probably Queen Jack should fold.')" }, "frames": [ "scratchpad/dh1/fold-trip-jacks-to-overbet-jam/frames/m_5128.jpg (t=5128 — thread title, URL, full post #1, post #2)", "scratchpad/dh1/fold-trip-jacks-to-overbet-jam/frames/m_5155.jpg (t=5155 — same screen AT the verdict word 'fold'; post #1 + #2 + top of #3)", "scratchpad/dh1/fold-trip-jacks-to-overbet-jam/frames/m_5185.jpg (t=5185 — post #3 in full while Tyler reads it aloud, s1060-1061)", "frames are READ-ONLY evidence; never aired" ], "video_t": [5108, 5200] } }, "context": "ONLINE MICRO CASH · 100 BB EFFECTIVE · BTN VS BB", "hero": { "pos": "BB", "cards": [ "Qc", "Js" ], "stack_bb": 75.25, "avatar": "lono_ghoul" }, "seats": [ { "pos": "UTG", "avatar": "ghoul_2987", "folded": true }, { "pos": "HJ", "avatar": "ghoul_3464", "folded": true }, { "pos": "CO", "avatar": "ghoul_4235", "folded": true }, { "pos": "BTN", "avatar": "ghoul_2918", "stack_bb": 0, "villain": true, "button": true }, { "pos": "SB", "avatar": "ghoul_1224", "folded": true } ], "streets": [ { "name": "preflop", "actions": [ { "pos": "UTG", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "HJ", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "CO", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "BTN", "act": "open", "to_bb": 3.5 }, { "pos": "SB", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 7.5 }, { "name": "flop", "board": [ "Jc", "9d", "4s" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "hero", "act": "check" }, { "pos": "BTN", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 2.5 }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 12.5 }, { "name": "turn", "board": [ "Jc", "9d", "4s", "Jh" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "hero", "act": "check" }, { "pos": "BTN", "act": "check" } ], "pot_bb": 12.5 }, { "name": "river", "board": [ "Jc", "9d", "4s", "Jh", "Kc" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "hero", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 18.75 }, { "pos": "BTN", "act": "allin", "to_bb": 94 } ] } ], "prompt": "Q♣J♠ · TRIP JACKS · YOU OVERBET 150% OF POT, THE BUTTON JAMS — CALL OR FOLD?", "pot_bb": 125.25, "options": [ { "id": "call", "label": "CALL" }, { "id": "fold", "label": "FOLD" } ], "correct": "fold", "option_feedback": { "call": "Trips feels too strong to let go, and a jam over a 150% overbet looks like a move. But your own overbet already folded out everything worse — what's left to continue has you beat: on J-9-4-J-K a better jack, the Q-T straight and every boat all beat Q♣J♠. The thread's first reply, which Tyler reads off the screen, says why the bluff isn't there: jamming over an overbet as a bluff is a play hardly anyone at these stakes finds.", "fold": "Correct — Tyler: 'I feel like we fold... I'm fairly comfortable that this is a fold in practice.' Your 150% overbet says trips-or-better and folds out worse, so the jam is a value range with Q♣J♠ beat — better jacks, Q-T, boats. And these opponents don't construct hero bluffs: 'think about these guys as 1100 chess players.' You'd be calling off your last 75 big blinds needing about 38% — against that range you're nowhere close." }, "verdict_text": "I feel like we fold. In fact, I'm fairly comfortable that this is a fold in practice.", "aired_transcript": "I feel like I feel like we fold. In fact, I'm fairly comfortable that this is a fold in practice.", "principle": "A river overbet folds out everything worse and caps what a raise can be: at micro stakes nobody jams over an overbet as a bluff, so the jam is only hands that beat you — even trip jacks is a fold.", "pct_provenance": { "150": { "role": "sizing", "referent": "Hero's own river bet as a fraction of the pot — the post's verbatim words: 'I bet 150% of pot' (post #1, line 6). Rendered as 18.75 bb into the 12.5 bb river pot, which is exactly 150%.", "source": "own frames m_5128 / m_5155 of cache/HandReview.mp4 (post #1 on screen); spoken by Eric at s1052 ('I bet 150') and s1065 ('shove over a 150 percent pop')" }, "38": { "role": "price", "referent": "Breakeven equity of the graded call: hero calls his last 75.25 bb into the 125.25 bb out there (12.5 settled + 18.75 hero + 94 BTN), i.e. 75.25 / 200.5 = 37.5%, displayed rounded to ~38%. Fixture arithmetic from the rendered tree; the post's own statement of the same price is 'he jams 75 more big blinds' at '100bbs effective'.", "source": "fixture arithmetic; post #1 lines 1 and 6 (own frames m_5128 / m_5155)" } }, "size_claims": { "overbet": { "street": "river", "actor": "hero", "bet_bb": 18.75, "pct_of_pot": 150, "note": "The word 'overbet' (id, prompt, feedback, principle) describes hero's OWN river bet — the post's verbatim 'I bet 150% of pot'; reply #2 also calls it 'your overbet'. Rendered 18.75 into 12.5 = exactly 150%.", "source": "post #1 line 6 + reply #2, own frames m_5128 / m_5155" } }, "claims": [ { "text": "jamming over your overbet as a bluff is a play hardly anyone at these stakes finds", "basis": "Thread reply #2 (YanasaurBBQ), on screen and read aloud by Tyler at s1059 ('Over bet is a bluff is a play I wouldn't expect hardly anyone does it pretty easy to find a fold'): verbatim 'Jamming over your overbet as a bluff is a play I wouldnt expect hardly anyone to find so pretty easy fold.'", "source": "own frames m_5128 / m_5155; SER HandReview s1057-1059" }, { "text": "the jam's value range has trip jacks with a queen kicker beat", "basis": "Board logic on J♣9♦4♠J♥K♣: A-J out-kicks Q♣J♠ (J-J-J-A-K beats J-J-J-K-Q), Q-T is a straight, and 9-9/4-4/K-K/J-9/K-J boats beat trips (K-J fills up on the river K). Reply #3 (L94E), on screen, lists the jam's value range as 'AJ maybe, Straight, boat' and concludes '...probably QJ should fold' — the conclusion Tyler reads aloud at s1060-1061 ('Probably Queen Jack should fold.').", "source": "own frames m_5155 / m_5185; SER HandReview s1060-1061" }, { "text": "micro opponents facing big river aggression mostly fold, and they don't construct hero bluffs — 'think about these guys as 1100 chess players'", "basis": "Tyler at s1067-1072: 'how do you think they're gonna respond on this river if they face it all in?' — Eric: 'a Reg will fold' — Tyler: 'Yes... that's gonna be like the preponderance here. Most people I'm playing... think about these guys as 1100 chess players.' Qualitative population read; no measured figure is stated or displayed.", "source": "SER HandReview s1067-1072" }, { "text": "you'd be calling off your last 75 big blinds needing about 38%", "basis": "Post #1: 'We are 100bbs effective' + 'he jams 75 more big blinds'. In the rendered tree hero has exactly 75.25 bb behind after the 18.75 river bet and the BTN's 94 bb all-in covers it exactly; 75.25 to win 125.25 = 37.5% breakeven, displayed ~38%. The 0.25 bb difference from the post's round '75 more' is the poster's own rounding — see cosmetic_invention on the open size.", "source": "post #1 (own frames m_5128 / m_5155) + fixture arithmetic" } ], "unverifiable_claims": [ "Eric's tease that Tyler is '0 for 6 folding trips' this year (s1063) and Tyler's answer 'that's not the line I've seen this year' (s1064) — session banter, not displayed anywhere in the fixture.", "'Think about these guys as 1100 chess players' (s1072) is Tyler's analogy for the micro population's sophistication — a qualitative read, displayed only as an attributed quote; it carries no number.", "Reply #3's Q-blocker aside ('having the Q is not the best to make this call because Q can be relevant in villan bluffing a range') is the forum poster's own conjecture ('I did not check it in GTOwiz') — noted here because the hero's Q♣ is real, but the argument is not displayed or graded." ], "cosmetic_invention": [ "Preflop open size 3.5 bb. The post says only 'Button raises preflop' — no size. 3.5 is the unique clean size that makes every stated fact of the post true at once: pot 7.5, flop bet 2.5 = exactly '1/3rd Pot', river bet 18.75 = exactly '150% of pot', and the BTN's all-in ('he jams') is 94 = his entire remaining stack, giving hero 75.25 more to call vs the post's 'jams 75 more big blinds' (0.25 bb = the poster's rounding). With the generic 2.5 bb open the render would contradict the post: the 'jam' would leave the BTN ~9 bb behind (not a jam) and the call would be 82 more, not 75.", "Table size and the folded seats. The post names only the Button and the Big Blind; the subforum is generic 'Online No-Limit Hold'em Cash' tagged [MICRO], and no table size, straddle or ante is stated or shown. Rendered on the site's standard 6-max felt with UTG/HJ/CO/SB folding; the context line claims only the stake class and positions, not a table size. No spoken or displayed fact depends on it.", "Ghoul avatars on all six seats (lono_ghoul for hero) — a typed forum post has no faces.", "The villain seat is deliberately unnamed: neither the post nor the tape gives any read on the button (the retired fixture's 'PASSIVE REG' label was invented and is removed).", "NOT invented: hero's exact cards Q♣J♠ and the full board with suits J♣9♦4♠ / J♥ / K♣ — all pixel-read from the thread title '[MICRO] QcJs on Jc 9d 4s Jh Kc facing jam' and post #1. No suit or position cosmetics were needed anywhere." ], "concept": "fold-trips-vs-jam-after-your-own-overbet", "concepts_secondary": [], "topic": "river-defense", "difficulty": 4, "decision": { "pot_settled_bb": 12.5, "bets": { "hero": 18.75, "BTN": 94 } } }