{
 "schema_version": "1.3",
 "table_size": 5,
 "id": "kjs-topwo-overbet-blank-river",
 "format": "multi_option",
 "free": true,
 "rebuild": "v2",
 "provenance_class": "dealt_hand",
 "updated_at": "2026-08-08T00:00:00Z",
 "source": {
  "session_id": "2025-12-04",
  "verdict_audio": "quiz/audio/kjs-topwo-overbet-blank-river.m4a",
  "ser_sentences": [
   140,
   141,
   159,
   160
  ],
  "verdict_beats": "s140-s141 (t=674.88-682.06) + s159-s160 (t=784.76-795.88), already registered in tools/cut_quiz_audio.py (re-cut there 2026-08-03 to drop s162's population earn-rates). Clip NOT re-cut this rebuild: it names no cards, streets, positions, stakes or magnitudes, and every claim in it ('you can even think of b200 here... viable if we're almost always good'; 'the b200 is greater than b75... just makes more money') is true of the rebuilt hand. Echo check 2026-08-08: faster-whisper small.en re-ASR of the shipped 19.25s m4a returns both beats verbatim (see aired_transcript). At the first verdict word (s140 t0=674.88) the screen holds a Snipping Tool still of THIS hand's river node, hand-annotated 'B75 / B100 / B125' in red ink (own frame t=675) \u2014 the sizings Tyler is enumerating.",
  "lesson_slug": null,
  "master_slug": "2025-12-04_master",
  "master_t": 595.03,
  "hand_record": {
   "lane": "FRAME_READ",
   "site": "Tyler's own Ignition hand, reviewed in the PokerTracker 4 replayer on his shared screen (session 2025-12-04; s124-s125 first-person line narration 'Open the 3x get called decide to check this board... I go with the check call'). Frames are READ-ONLY provenance, never aired \u2014 title bar carries the Ignition room name (no-operator-branding policy).",
   "hand_id": "#4791241030",
   "stake": {
    "source": "TITLE_BAR",
    "label": "$5 NL (6 max)",
    "usd_per_bb": null,
    "note": "replayer title bar verbatim 'Playback for Ignition Hand #4791241030 (2) - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem' (own 3x zoom of frame t=606, re-read this rebuild). The replayer displays every amount natively in BB ('posts the small blind 0.50 BB', 'bets 2.85 BB', 'Pot: 11.70 BB') and the fixture copies those BB figures verbatim \u2014 NO $-to-bb conversion was performed anywhere. The PT4 toolbar '$109.62' and side panel 'Avg Stack: $683' are session-level widgets with no on-screen mapping to this hand and ship nowhere.",
    "hand_begins": "2025/06/05 8:45 am (log first line; played in June, reviewed in the 2025-12-04 session)"
   },
   "video_t": [
    600,
    700
   ],
   "frames": [
    "t=606 (scratchpad dh2/kjs-topwo-overbet-blank-river/f/f_606.jpg + z_title.png + z_log_606.png + z_cards.png) \u2014 preflop node: title bar; 5 players dealt at the 6-max ring (Hero, P2, P4, P5, P6 \u2014 no other seat plates); hero's K and J both GREEN with club pips (4-colour deck: clubs) = Kc Jc; hero 3 BB raise chip out, P2's 1 BB blind out, P4/P5/P6 tagged FOLD; 'Pot: 4 BB / Odds: 2.00:1 - 33%' (P2 facing the raise); log top verbatim (see log_verbatim)",
    "t=618 (f_618.jpg + z_log_618.png) \u2014 turn node: board K(spade) T(diamond,blue) 8(heart,red) J(heart,red) on felt, 'Pot: 11.70 BB', hero 'Hero - 85% / 137.45 BB', P2 '148.42 BB'; log through 'Turn: [Jh]'",
    "t=624 (f_624.jpg + z_log_624.png) \u2014 THE DECISION on screen: 'River: [5d]' logged, board K T 8 J 5 on felt, 'Pot: 11.70 BB', hero first to act, 'Hero - 94% / 137.45 BB', P2 '- 6% / 148.42 BB'; flop-to-river log verbatim (see log_verbatim); folded stacks P6 110.10 BB / P5 99.19 BB / P4 183.17 BB on their plates",
    "t=675 (f_675.jpg) \u2014 on screen at the first verdict word (s140 t0=674.88): Snipping Tool still of this same river node with 'Pot: 11.70 BB', 'Hero - 94% / 137.45 BB', red-ink annotations 'B75 / B100 / B125'",
    "t=786 (x_786.jpg) \u2014 during the second aired beat: Excel 'FoldValueswithIgnitionMDA.xlsx' (user Tyler Forrester), sheet tab 'Ignition Pool Value Bet 100%EQ' \u2014 the proprietary aggregate MDA report behind s147-s162. READ-ONLY rule-7 context: nothing from this sheet is displayed on the quiz, and the aired clip stops at s160, before the s162 magnitudes",
    "t=1055 + t=1062 (my_675-era rebuild frames, stage-5 gate 2026-08-08) \u2014 the replay RESUMES after the data/solver discussion: log 'Hero bets 16.67 BB / P2-037aefc2d9d1e6ea4582aaeda159b54d calls 16.67 BB / Action has ended / Hero shows [Kc Jc] Two Pair, Kings and Jacks / P2-037aefc2d9d1e6ea4582aaeda159b54d mucks [Kh 4h] One Pair, Kings / Hero wins 44.45 BB', 'Pot: 45.05 BB' then 44.45 BB pushed (0.60 BB rake). Result is READ-ONLY provenance: never displayed or aired"
   ],
   "log_verbatim": [
    "Ignition Hand #4791241030 begins at 2025/06/05  8:45 am",
    "Seat 6 (P6-8c061b9bbf987ba16305f39f988a66cc) is the dealer",
    "Hero posts the small blind 0.50 BB",
    "P2-037aefc2d9d1e6ea4582aaeda159b54d posts the big blind 1 BB",
    "P4-826eb198df4e659afdf746a011af083f folds",
    "P5-7d4d4cd5c348859cb5a5a70db1785ff4 folds",
    "P6-8c061b9bbf987ba16305f39f988a66cc folds",
    "Hero raises to 3 BB",
    "P2-037aefc2d9d1e6ea4582aaeda159b54d calls 2 BB",
    "Flop: [Ks Td 8h]",
    "Hero checks",
    "P2-037aefc2d9d1e6ea4582aaeda159b54d bets 2.85 BB",
    "Hero calls 2.85 BB",
    "Turn: [Jh]",
    "Hero checks",
    "P2-037aefc2d9d1e6ea4582aaeda159b54d checks",
    "River: [5d]"
   ]
  }
 },
 "context": "TYLER'S OWN HAND \u00b7 $5 NL, 5-HANDED \u00b7 BLIND vs BLIND",
 "hero": {
  "pos": "SB",
  "cards": [
   "Kc",
   "Jc"
  ],
  "stack_bb": 137.45,
  "avatar": "lono_ghoul"
 },
 "seats": [
  {
   "pos": "BB",
   "avatar": "ghoul_4840",
   "stack_bb": 148.42,
   "villain": true
  },
  {
   "pos": "UTG",
   "avatar": "ghoul_88",
   "stack_bb": 183.17,
   "folded": true
  },
  {
   "pos": "CO",
   "avatar": "ghoul_44",
   "stack_bb": 99.19,
   "folded": true
  },
  {
   "pos": "BTN",
   "avatar": "ghoul_1211",
   "stack_bb": 110.1,
   "folded": true,
   "button": true
  }
 ],
 "streets": [
  {
   "name": "preflop",
   "actions": [
    {
     "pos": "UTG",
     "act": "fold"
    },
    {
     "pos": "CO",
     "act": "fold"
    },
    {
     "pos": "BTN",
     "act": "fold"
    },
    {
     "pos": "hero",
     "act": "open",
     "to_bb": 3
    },
    {
     "pos": "BB",
     "act": "call"
    }
   ],
   "pot_bb": 6
  },
  {
   "name": "flop",
   "board": [
    "Ks",
    "Td",
    "8h"
   ],
   "actions": [
    {
     "pos": "hero",
     "act": "check"
    },
    {
     "pos": "BB",
     "act": "bet",
     "to_bb": 2.85
    },
    {
     "pos": "hero",
     "act": "call"
    }
   ],
   "pot_bb": 11.7
  },
  {
   "name": "turn",
   "board": [
    "Ks",
    "Td",
    "8h",
    "Jh"
   ],
   "actions": [
    {
     "pos": "hero",
     "act": "check"
    },
    {
     "pos": "BB",
     "act": "check"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "river",
   "board": [
    "Ks",
    "Td",
    "8h",
    "Jh",
    "5d"
   ],
   "actions": []
  }
 ],
 "prompt": "K\u2663J\u2663 \u00b7 TOP TWO \u00b7 TURN CHECKED THROUGH, BLANK RIVER \u2014 HOW BIG?",
 "pot_bb": 11.7,
 "options": [
  {
   "id": "b33",
   "label": "B 33 \u2014 \u2153 POT"
  },
  {
   "id": "b75",
   "label": "B 75 \u2014 \u00be POT"
  },
  {
   "id": "b200",
   "label": "B 200 \u2014 2x POT"
  }
 ],
 "correct": "b200",
 "option_feedback": {
  "b33": "The induce line \u2014 Tyler genuinely weighs it: a small bet only beats the overbet if he bluff-raises it. But how likely is a raise on a river that's basically a blank? Rare \u2014 a raise here isn't repping anything. Take the raise out and the small bet just wins small.",
  "b75": "The 'standard' value bet \u2014 but if he doesn't raise, betting bigger just makes more money. Tyler establishes it quickly: the B 200 is greater than the B 75.",
  "b200": "Correct \u2014 top two is almost always good here, and nobody really raises these river sizings. With the raise off the table, the overbet just makes more money than the \u00be-pot line."
 },
 "verdict_text": "You can even think of B 200 here \u2014 that's a viable sizing if we're almost always good. And we can establish pretty quickly: the B 200 is greater than the B 75. It just makes more money.",
 "principle": "Near-nut value on a blank river against an opponent who won't raise: betting bigger just makes more money \u2014 the 'standard' \u00be-pot bet leaves value behind. Overbet.",
 "concept": "overbet-value-vs-non-raiser",
 "concepts_secondary": [],
 "topic": "bet-sizing",
 "difficulty": 4,
 "aired_transcript": "So, I mean, you can even think of B200 here, like, that's a viable sizing if we're almost always good. So I come up with, you know, like, I think we can establish pretty quickly that B200 is greater than B75, like, it just makes more money.",
 "aired_transcript_note": "Verbatim faster-whisper small.en re-ASR of quiz/audio/kjs-topwo-overbet-blank-river.m4a (19.25s, re-run 2026-08-08); beats s140-s141 + s159-s160. Drift: ASR renders the spoken 'be 200'/'be 75' node names as 'B200'/'B75' and smooths s140's stammer ('you you can even think of') and s159's ('Like I think I think'). No cards, streets, positions, stakes or percentages aired. The 2026-08-03 re-cut had already removed s162's population earn-rates from the AUDIO (rule 7); this rebuild removes them from verdict_text, which had still been shipping them in TEXT.",
 "pct_provenance": {},
 "size_claims": {
  "overbet": {
   "street": "river",
   "actor": "hero",
   "pct_of_pot": 200.0,
   "source": "the graded option is Tyler's spoken B 200 node \u2014 s140 'you can even think of be 200 here', s159 'the b200 is greater than B 75' \u2014 i.e. bet 200% of pot: 23.4 BB into the 11.70 BB pot printed on the replayer (frames t=618/624/675)."
  },
  "small": {
   "street": "river",
   "actor": "hero",
   "pct_of_pot": 33.3,
   "source": "the b33 option the feedback calls 'a small bet' is Tyler's own induce candidate \u2014 s168 'our best sizing here is actually be 25 or be 33 [if] the guy's gonna bluff raise' \u2014 one-third pot, inside the 0-40% band the word promises."
  }
 },
 "claims": [
  {
   "text": "the 2x pot option is Tyler's B 200 node: 200% of the printed 11.70 BB river pot = 23.4 BB",
   "lhs": "B 200",
   "op": "=",
   "rhs": "2.0 x 11.70 BB = 23.4 BB",
   "source": "s140/s159 name the node; 'Pot: 11.70 BB' on the replayer and on the annotated still (frames t=618/624/675)"
  },
  {
   "text": "there is no price at this decision \u2014 pot 11.70 BB, hero first to act, no bet pending; the question is a sizing choice",
   "lhs": "river state",
   "op": "=",
   "rhs": "settled pot 11.70 BB, bets {}",
   "source": "log 'Turn: [Jh] / Hero checks / P2 checks / River: [5d]' + 'Pot: 11.70 BB' (frame t=624)"
  },
  {
   "text": "flop bet ratio (recorded for coherence, not displayed): 2.85 BB into 6.00 BB = 47.5% of pot",
   "lhs": "BB flop bet",
   "op": "=",
   "rhs": "2.85 / 6.00 = 47.5%",
   "source": "log verbatim 'bets 2.85 BB' (t=618/624); preflop pot 3+3 = 6 BB from the logged raise-to-3 and call"
  },
  {
   "text": "Tyler's actual in-game click was a bet of 16.67 BB (~142% pot \u2014 'I ended up b150, I probably could have got a little bigger'); villain called and mucked Kh 4h. Read but never displayed or aired: the quiz ends at the decision node, and the graded correct=b200 is Tyler's stated VERDICT (s184 'we probably wanted the B 200', s209 'I wish I'd bet bigger'), which the result corroborates (K4 \u2014 one pair \u2014 paid 142% of pot)",
   "lhs": "actual river bet",
   "op": "=",
   "rhs": "16.67 / 11.70 = 142.5% of pot",
   "source": "log continuation + showdown read off own frames t=1055/t=1062 this rebuild; tape s205 'I ended up be 150 which I probably could have got a little bigger', s207 'he has king 4 which was probably gonna call B 200', s209 'I wish I'd bet bigger'"
  },
  {
   "text": "'almost always good' is Tyler's spoken premise, not an invented equity figure",
   "lhs": "hero river strength",
   "op": "~",
   "rhs": "top two pair, no flush possible, no one-card straight; the replayer's river tag reads 'Hero - 94%' (equity vs the villain's ACTUAL dealt cards \u2014 PT4 knows both hands on Ignition). Not displayed on the quiz",
   "source": "s139 'how often are we good here?', s141 'viable sizing if we're almost always good'; frame t=624; Eric names the hand class on tape, s128 'I have top two pair'"
  }
 ],
 "unverifiable_claims": [
  "No read on THIS villain is stated anywhere on tape (his HUD shows 6 hands \u2014 nothing Tyler cites). The 'he doesn't raise' premise is Tyler's population pattern: s155 'if he doesn't raise', s156 'betting bigger probably just makes more money', s158 'I don't think anyone really raises these sizings', s180 'how likely is he to raise a river that's basically a blank?', s184 'I don't either, especially here because he's not really repping anything... we probably wanted the B 200'. The villain seat is therefore UNNAMED \u2014 the prior fixture's 'FISH' name and 'vs A PASSIVE REC' context were invented biography and are dropped.",
  "CORRECTED at stage-5 gate 2026-08-08 (prior entry falsely said the log never scrolls past 'River: [5d]' and no result is narrated): the replay resumes at ~t=1045-1065 and the result IS read and narrated \u2014 see the claims[] entry and frames t=1055/t=1062. Within the mined decision window [600,700] the log does stop at 'River: [5d]'; the quiz still ends at the decision node and airs no result.",
  "The b33 induce line's profitability if villain DID bluff-raise aggressively (s168-s169) is Tyler's hypothetical, resolved against by s180-s184; it is presented in the b33 feedback exactly as his weighed-and-rejected alternative."
 ],
 "cosmetic_invention": [
  "Avatars only (art): hero lono_ghoul; BB ghoul_4840; UTG ghoul_88; CO ghoul_44; BTN ghoul_1211. Everything else \u2014 the 5-handed ring, blind-vs-blind positions, hero's actual suits (K\u2663J\u2663 read off the 4-colour deck), board suits (Ks Td 8h Jh 5d from the log), every bet size, the pot and all five stacks \u2014 is read off the replayer log and felt; nothing is staged."
 ],
 "decision": {
  "pot_settled_bb": 11.7,
  "bets": {}
 }
}