{ "schema_version": "1.3", "table_size": 4, "id": "kq-fold-top-pair-vs-tight-sb", "format": "call_fold", "free": true, "rebuild": "v2", "provenance_class": "dealt_hand", "updated_at": "2026-08-08T14:45:00Z", "source": { "session_id": "Somehandreview", "verdict_audio": "quiz/audio/kq-fold-top-pair-vs-tight-sb.m4a", "lesson_slug": null, "ser_sentences": [783, 784, 785, 787, 790], "hand_record": { "screen": "Poker-room hand-history replayer ('Playback' window, PokerTracker) on Tyler's shared screen. Frames are READ-ONLY provenance — never aired (the window carries room branding).", "stake": "$1 NL (6 max) — replayer title bar 'Playback for … Hand #45609484xx - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem' at video t=3641 (8x crop re-read 2026-08-08). The room name in the title bar is withheld from this shipped fixture per the no-operator-branding policy; it is recorded in the audit trail.", "hand_id": "#45609484xx — begins-line reads 'Hand #45609484xx begins at 2023/11/27 3:10 am'; the trailing digits sit at the legibility floor. Cross-check: the next hand Tyler loads (t=3695) reads '#4560947438 begins at 2023/11/27 3:05 am' — same 456094xxxx block, earlier hand, so the prefix read is solid.", "bb_display": "The replayer is set to BB units — every amount in this fixture is read natively in BB off the action log and felt discs. NO $-to-bb conversion was performed anywhere. Eric's spoken dollar figures ('he bet 1350' s764) corroborate at $1/bb but are not used as a source.", "frames": [ "cache/Somehandreview.mp4 t=3530 — log scrolled to the top (full preflop verbatim) + flop state: 'Pot: 14.56 BB', middle disc 6 BB, P1 93.72 BB behind with 4.28 BB out, Hero 'CALL'", "cache/Somehandreview.mp4 t=3600 — river node: villain plate 'P1-253de2ce9… - 17%' / 73.15 BB with 13.57 BB out, 'Odds: 3.10:1 - 24%'", "cache/Somehandreview.mp4 t=3641 — the verdict frame (first word of s785 'We don't beat anything' lands here): hero K(club-glyph, green)/Q(spade-glyph, grey) = K♣Q♠, board Q(green/club) 3(grey/spade) 9(green/club) 5(blue/diamond) J(green/club) on the 4-colour deck, pot disc 28.56 BB, 'Pot: 42.13 BB', hero plate 'Hero - 83% / 86.22 BB'", "cache/Somehandreview.mp4 t=3650 — independent gate re-read 2026-08-08: river-bet node ('Pot: 42.13 BB', 'Odds: 3.10:1 - 24%', villain 73.15 BB behind with the 13.57 BB disc out, hero 86.22 BB)", "cache/Somehandreview.mp4 t=3664 — showdown: villain's A♣3♣ face-up, log 'P1… shows [3c Ac] Flush, Ace High' / 'Hero mucks [Kc Qs] One Pair, Queens', villain plate 100% / 126.07 BB" ], "log_verbatim": [ "Hand #45609484xx begins at 2023/11/27 3:10 am", "Seat 6 (P6-71c424fb…) is the dealer", "P1-253de2ce… posts the small blind 0.50 BB", "P3-69f0a17a… posts the big blind 1 BB", "Hero raises to 2.50 BB", "P6-71c424fb… folds", "P1-253de2ce… calls 2 BB", "P3-69f0a17a… folds", "Flop [Qc 3s 9c]", "P1-253de2ce… bets 4.28 BB", "Hero calls 4.28 BB", "Turn [5d]", "P1-253de2ce… bets 7 BB", "Hero calls 7 BB", "River [Jc]", "P1-253de2ce… bets 13.57 BB", "Hero calls 13.57 BB", "Action has ended", "P1-253de2ce… shows [3c Ac] Flush, Ace High", "Hero mucks [Kc Qs] One Pair, Queens", "P1-253de2ce… wins 52.92 BB" ], "seat_derivation": "Only FOUR of the six seats are occupied — two vacant ovals on the felt at t=3530/t=3641. Dealer = Seat 6 (P6…); P1… posts the SB, P3… posts the BB; Hero acts FIRST preflop ('Hero raises to 2.50 BB' precedes 'P6… folds'), so Hero is one off the button = CO. Rendered exactly 4-handed. The v1 fixture's 6-handed felt (hero on the BTN, invented UTG/HJ/CO players folding in front) was fabricated.", "villain_hud": "P1 HUD plate at t=3530/3600/3641: 'VP 19 / PR 17 / 3B 7 / CB 60' over a '(65)'-hand sample — the on-screen basis for the 'tight' read. Individual-opponent stats read off the shared screen, not population data.", "stacks": "Hero started the hand exactly 100.0 BB deep: 86.22 behind at the river (seat plate, t=3641) + 2.5 + 4.28 + 7 invested. Villain started 100.5 BB: 93.72 behind on the flop with 4.28 out (t=3530) and 73.15 behind at the river (t=3600) = 100.5 − 0.5 − 2 − 4.28 − 7 − 13.57. Effective depth = hero's 100 BB.", "result": "PIXEL-CONFIRMED at t=3664 (fidelity-gate re-derivation 2026-08-08; supersedes the builder's 'no showdown frame exists' note): Eric steps the replay through the showdown before Tyler loads the next hand (~t=3678). Log: 'Hero calls 13.57 BB' / 'Action has ended' / 'P1-253de2ce… shows [3c Ac] Flush, Ace High' / 'Hero mucks [Kc Qs] One Pair, Queens' / 'P1… wins 52.92 BB' (printed digits at the legibility floor; nailed by stack arithmetic 126.07 final − 73.15 at the bet = 52.92, i.e. 55.70 pot − 2.78 rake). Villain's A♣3♣ renders face-up at his seat (plate 'P1… - 100%'). Tape agrees: 'He had the nuts there as opposed to like a set of threes' (s789); Eric called ('I had the king of clubs and thought that was a good reason to call' s765)." } }, "context": "$1 NL ONLINE · 6-MAX TABLE, 4 DEALT · 100 BB EFFECTIVE · vs A TIGHT SB", "hero": { "pos": "CO", "cards": [ "Kc", "Qs" ], "stack_bb": 86.22, "avatar": "lono_ghoul", "button": false }, "seats": [ { "pos": "BTN", "avatar": "ghoul_203", "folded": true, "button": true }, { "pos": "SB", "avatar": "ghoul_1733", "name": "TIGHT", "stack_bb": 73.15, "villain": true }, { "pos": "BB", "avatar": "ghoul_857", "folded": true } ], "streets": [ { "name": "preflop", "actions": [ { "pos": "hero", "act": "open", "to_bb": 2.5 }, { "pos": "BTN", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "SB", "act": "call" }, { "pos": "BB", "act": "fold" } ], "pot_bb": 6 }, { "name": "flop", "board": [ "Qc", "3s", "9c" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "SB", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 4.28 }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 14.56 }, { "name": "turn", "board": [ "Qc", "3s", "9c", "5d" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "SB", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 7 }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 28.56 }, { "name": "river", "board": [ "Qc", "3s", "9c", "5d", "Jc" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "SB", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 13.57 } ] } ], "prompt": "K♣Q♠ · TOP PAIR + THE K♣ BLOCKER · THE TIGHT SB LEADS 13.57 INTO 28.56 ON THE FLUSH RIVER — CALL OR FOLD?", "pot_bb": 42.13, "options": [ { "id": "call", "label": "CALL" }, { "id": "fold", "label": "FOLD" } ], "correct": "fold", "option_feedback": { "call": "Tempting price — 13.57 into 42.13 is 3.10-to-1, a 24% breakeven — and your K♣ blocks the king-high flush. But run the line back: a tight SB cold-calls preflop, then leads flop, leads turn, and leads again when the third club lands. Tyler can't name one hand in that story you beat — the blocker doesn't buy you one.", "fold": "Correct — \"I can't name a hand we beat, so I think I have to fold.\" A tight SB who cold-calls and then leads all three streets has top pair crushed, and sizing DOWN when the flush card lands is the nut side, not a bluff — they do it so much. On the tape, he had it." }, "verdict_text": "Probably structurally it's still a fold would be my guess — we don't beat anything. I can't name a hand we beat, so I think I have to fold. It's just so freaking typical for them to size down because they have the nut side — they do it so much.", "principle": "Differentiate the two blinds: the same top pair that's worth a ton against a big blind is just a fold against a tight SB — his cold-call-then-lead range is nutted, and sizing down on the flush river is the nut side.", "concept": "tight-sb-small-lead-is-nuts", "concepts_secondary": [], "topic": "bayesian-profiling", "difficulty": 4, "pct_provenance": { "24": { "role": "equity_at_decision", "referent": "the pot-odds BREAKEVEN the replayer itself prints at this decision — 'Odds: 3.10:1 - 24%' — i.e. 13.57 to call into 42.13 = 13.57/55.70 = 24.4% required. A price, not a claim about hero's realised equity.", "source": "frames t=3600 and t=3641 (odds line under the pot); arithmetic on the logged bets" } }, "size_claims": { "_note": "No size adjective appears in any displayed string or in the aired clip (the aired 'size down' names the villain's choice of a lesser number, not a band). Entries document the real bets read off the replayer.", "open to 2.5": { "street": "preflop", "actor": "hero (CO, first to act 4-handed)", "to_bb": 2.5, "source": "log 'Hero raises to 2.50 BB' (t=3530)" }, "flop lead 4.28": { "street": "flop", "actor": "SB", "to_bb": 4.28, "pct_of_pot": 71.3, "source": "log 'P1… bets 4.28 BB' into the settled 6 BB preflop pot (middle disc, t=3530). Note: NOT a small lead — 71% pot — which is why no displayed string calls any of these leads small." }, "turn lead 7": { "street": "turn", "actor": "SB", "to_bb": 7, "pct_of_pot": 48.1, "source": "log 'P1… bets 7 BB' into the settled 14.56 BB pot ('Pot: 14.56 BB', t=3530)" }, "river lead 13.57": { "street": "river", "actor": "SB", "to_bb": 13.57, "pct_of_pot": 47.5, "source": "log 'P1… bets 13.57 BB' into the settled 28.56 BB pot (pot disc, t=3641); the DOWN in 'sizing DOWN' is 13.57 < a pot-growth continuation, and it is the third-street lead Tyler is ruling on (s782 'he bets so small here on the river' stays UNAIRED because 47.5% sits outside the band that word promises)" } }, "claims": [ { "text": "Hero's price at the decision: 13.57 to call into 42.13 = 3.10-to-1 = 24.4% breakeven; the replayer prints 'Odds: 3.10:1 - 24%'.", "basis": "pixels, frames t=3600/t=3641; arithmetic on the logged bets", "recomputed": true }, { "text": "Pot chain: preflop 6.00 (hero 2.5 + SB 2.5 + 1 dead BB) + flop 4.28×2 + turn 7×2 = 28.56 settled; + the 13.57 lead = 42.13 — matching every on-screen figure ('Pot: 14.56 BB' t=3530; disc 28.56 and 'Pot: 42.13 BB' t=3641).", "basis": "pixels (action log + pot discs), recomputed from the log lines", "recomputed": true }, { "text": "Stacks: hero 86.22 behind at the river = 100.0 − 2.5 − 4.28 − 7 (seat plate t=3641); villain 73.15 behind = 93.72 (flop plate, t=3530) − 7 − 13.57, i.e. a 100.5 BB start. Effective depth 100 BB (hero).", "basis": "pixels, seat plates t=3530/t=3600/t=3641", "recomputed": true }, { "text": "The river lead is 47.5% of the settled pot (13.57/28.56) — the 'sizing down' Tyler rules on; Eric on tape: 'so even this like less than half pot' (s772).", "basis": "pixels + tape s772", "recomputed": true }, { "text": "Result (and the fold's correctness) confirmed at showdown: 'P1… shows [3c Ac] Flush, Ace High', 'Hero mucks [Kc Qs] One Pair, Queens', villain A♣3♣ face-up and wins 52.92 BB (stack arithmetic 126.07 − 73.15; printed win-line digits at the legibility floor). Also the second corroboration of hero's exact cards, independent of the 4-colour card render.", "basis": "pixels, showdown frame t=3664", "recomputed": true } ], "unverifiable_claims": [ "The 'TIGHT' villain label: Tyler's stated read on this real opponent — 'I would argue that like this range is super tight' (s706), 'against a tight small blind' (s740-741) — corroborated by the on-screen 65-hand HUD (VP 19 / PR 17 / 3B 7, frames t=3530/t=3641). A read on one opponent, not a measured population figure.", "The blinds-differentiation frame in principle ('worth a ton against a big blind… just a fold against a tight SB'): Tyler at s748-749 — 'you have to differentiate between the two positions… the big blind's worth a ton and the small blind's like just fold' — spoken over his Notepad/calculator argument segment minutes before the replay. The depth condition he attaches there ('should always be folded if they've got more than about 20 big ones', s742-743) and every magnitude from that segment (the SB cold-call frequency, combo counts, the 89%/96% equity pair) are deliberately NOT displayed and NOT aired — the aired verdict is cut from the at-the-node sentences 783-790 only." ], "cosmetic_invention": [ "Ghoul avatars (lono_ghoul hero, ghoul_203 BTN, ghoul_1733 SB, ghoul_857 BB) — art only; the replayer shows anonymized IDs (P6-71c424…, P1-253de2ce…, P3-69f0a17a…).", "The villain's display name 'TIGHT' — the rendered label for Tyler's stated read (s706/s740-741, HUD-corroborated); the room shows only the anonymized ID.", "Seat position LABELS CO/BTN/SB/BB — derived from the log (Seat 6 = dealer; P1 posts SB; P3 posts BB; hero acts first preflop, so hero = one off the button), not printed as text on the replayer felt.", "NO cosmetic suits and no cosmetic structure: hero K♣Q♠ and the board Q♣3♠9♣5♦J♣ are load-bearing (the K♣ blocker and the club-flush river) and are read off the 4-colour deck cross-checked against the log's literal 'Qc 3s 9c' / '5d' / 'Jc'; sizes, stacks, the 4-handed table and the action order are the pixels' own." ], "aired_transcript": "Probably structurally, it's still a fold would be my guess. We don't beat anything. And I just like, I can't name a hand we beat, so I think I have to fold. I mean, like, it's just so freaking typical for them to size down because they have the nut side. They do it so much.", "decision": { "pot_settled_bb": 28.56, "bets": { "SB": 13.57 } } }