{ "schema_version": "1.3", "table_size": 4, "id": "qj-pair-overbet-jam-bluff", "format": "multi_option", "free": true, "rebuild": "v2", "provenance_class": "dealt_hand", "updated_at": "2026-08-08T00:00:00Z", "source": { "session_id": "HandAnalysis", "verdict_audio": "quiz/audio/qj-pair-overbet-jam-bluff.m4a", "lesson_slug": null, "master_slug": "HandAnalysis_master", "master_t": 486.0, "src_t": 518.4, "ser_sentences": [83, 86, 104, 105, 106, 108, 119, 120, 121, 122, 148, 150, 151], "verdict_beats": "RE-CUT 2026-08-08 (this rebuild) — tools/cut_quiz_audio.py: w1256-1273 (s104 head) + w1315-1325 (s106 less the vocative 'Eric') + s121. 11.08s. The old splice aired s104 whole plus s161, which is spoken 2.5 minutes later over the PokerTracker population popup (own frame t=762) and describes a pot-pot-pot-jam line this hand never took. Echo proof in aired_transcript.", "hand_record": { "lane": "REPLAYER", "screen": "PokerTracker hand replayer ('Playback' window) on Tyler's shared screen, with Flopzilla v1.8.6 floated over the felt while he counts the villain's range. Frames are READ-ONLY provenance and are NEVER aired: the window title carries the poker network's name and the felt carries a poker-room watermark (CLAUDE.md rule 2).", "operator_hand_id": "#4468326795 — title bar 'Playback for iPoker Network Hand #4468326795 (2) - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem' (own frames t=317, t=519, t=610, t=771; 6x crop) and the log's own first line 'iPoker Network Hand #4468326795 begins at 2023/05/17 11:08 am' (own frame t=317, 4x crop). Two independent reads of the same id at four different timestamps.", "stake": "$2.50/$5 — read from the hand's OWN log, not from a tool sidebar: 'P1-102911VX posts the small blind 2.50' / 'P3-919480XJ posts the big blind 5.00' (own frame t=317). So 1 BB = $5.00, and that is the only conversion used anywhere in this fixture. Corroborated by the title bar's '$5 NL' and by the felt's preflop pot readout 'Pot: $27.50' = 5.5 BB.", "table_structure": "A 6-max table running FOUR-HANDED. Four seats are occupied (P3-919480XJ top-left, P4-720173RV top-right, Hero right, P1-102911VX bottom-left) and two ovals are empty (mid-left, bottom-right) in every frame. 'Seat 3 (Hero) is the dealer', P1 posts the SB, P3 posts the BB, and P4 is the only player who acts before Hero preflop — so clockwise from the button it is Hero(BTN) → P1(SB) → P3(BB) → P4(CO). No antes, no straddle.", "log_verbatim": [ "iPoker Network Hand #4468326795 begins at 2023/05/17 11:08 am", "Seat 3 (Hero) is the dealer", "P1-102911VX posts the small blind 2.50", "P3-919480XJ posts the big blind 5.00", "P4-720173RV folds", "Hero raises to 12.50", "P1-102911VX folds", "P3-919480XJ calls 7.50", "Flop: [Ad 4s 3h]", "P3-919480XJ checks", "Hero bets 8.56", "P3-919480XJ calls 8.56", "Turn: [Ts]", "P3-919480XJ checks", "Hero bets 53.91", "P3-919480XJ calls 53.91", "River: [Jc]", "P3-919480XJ checks", "Hero checks" ], "log_scroll_states": "Three overlapping reads cover the log end to end: t=317 (top of the log, 'begins at…' through 'Flop: [Ad 4s 3h]'), t=330 (flop check through the river check), t=700/t=771 ('Hero bets 8.56' through 'Hero checks'). Every line above appears in at least two of them except the head block, which is unique to t=317 and unambiguous.", "frames": [ "cache/HandAnalysis.mp4 t=317 — preflop-complete state: title bar, log head, 'Pot: $27.50', hero J(blue/diamond)Q(red/heart) face-up with plate 'Hero - 3% / $958.42', villain face-up Q(grey/spade)A(green/club) with plate 'P3-919480XJ - 97% / $805.37', P4 $728.39, P1 $621.19", "cache/HandAnalysis.mp4 t=330 — log scrolled one page: 'P3-919480XJ checks' (flop) … 'P3-919480XJ checks' (river)", "cache/HandAnalysis.mp4 t=519 — the verdict frame for beat 1: felt 'Pot: $152.44', hero $895.95, villain $742.90; Flopzilla v1.8.6 open with the header 'two pair: 15.8%, 16 combos out of 101' and the board slots on the River tab reading A♥ J♣ T♠ 4♠ 3♥", "cache/HandAnalysis.mp4 t=541 — beat 2 ('90% fold'): same replayer node, Flopzilla range grid at the right edge, grid footer '101 combos in preflop range'", "cache/HandAnalysis.mp4 t=610 — beat 3 ('ace-queen will not pure-call a jam'): Flopzilla closed, replayer showing the completed board A(blue/diamond) 4(grey/spade) 3(red/heart) T(grey/spade) J(green/club), 'Pot: $152.44', hero $895.95, villain $742.90", "cache/HandAnalysis.mp4 t=762 — the PokerTracker population/notes popup ('Raised 1st: Bet | Bet | Bet [IP][HU]', bet-sizing and board-texture frequency tables). This is the screen s159/s161 are spoken over; it is the reason those sentences are neither displayed nor aired (rule 7).", "cache/HandAnalysis.mp4 t=771 — end state: log tail 'River: [Jc] / P3-919480XJ checks / Hero checks'" ], "cards": { "hero": "Q♥ J♦ — pixels, 4-colour deck, own frames t=317 and t=610 (blue J with a diamond pip, red Q with a heart pip). The log does not print hero's hole cards on this replayer view.", "villain": "Q♠ A♣ — pixels, own frame t=317 (grey Q with a spade pip, green A with a club pip). NOT displayed in the quiz; recorded because it is what makes Tyler's 'It's really ace Queen' (s120) and 'even if he called ace Queen' (s164) about a hand that was actually dealt.", "board_by_street": "flop [Ad 4s 3h], turn [Ts], river [Jc] — LOG TEXT (own frames t=317/t=330), cross-checked against the 4-colour felt at t=610/t=771. No flush is possible (d/s/h/s/c). K-Q is the nuts (A-K-Q-J-T)." }, "pots_by_street": { "preflop": "$27.50 = 5.5 BB — felt readout 'Pot: $27.50' (t=317) AND log arithmetic (2.50 SB dead + 12.50 + 12.50)", "flop": "$44.62 = 8.92 BB — 27.50 + 8.56 + 8.56 (log)", "turn_and_river": "$152.44 = 30.49 BB — felt readout 'Pot: $152.44' (t=519, t=541, t=610, t=771) AND log arithmetic (44.62 + 53.91 + 53.91). The chain closes on two independent pixel anchors.", "conversion_shown": "native ÷ 5.00 = BB, from the log's own 'posts the big blind 5.00'" }, "stacks": "At the river decision: hero $895.95 = 179.19 BB behind, villain $742.90 = 148.58 BB behind (seat plates, own frames t=519/t=541/t=610/t=771). Starting stacks were UNEQUAL — hero $970.92 = 194.18 BB, villain $817.87 = 163.57 BB (each = behind + the 15.0 BB they put in), so the effective depth was 163.57 BB. The jam under discussion is therefore the VILLAIN'S 148.58 BB, and hero is not risking his own last 30.6 BB. Because the two starting stacks differ, no single 'N BB DEEP' figure is true of both players and the context line deliberately carries none.", "result": "Hero CHECKED BACK — log tail 'River: [Jc] / P3-919480XJ checks / Hero checks' (own frames t=330, t=700, t=771). Tyler on tape: 'so I I decided to check this thing' (s86) and 'I'm kind of annoyed with myself because I knew it in game' (s108). The quiz asks what SHOULD be done at that node; the check-back is disclosed in the CHECK feedback rather than hidden.", "hud_reads": "None used. The only population/HUD surface in this segment is the popup at t=762, and nothing from it is displayed or aired.", "negative_findings": "No Tyler read on this opponent exists anywhere in the segment — the closest sentences are Eric's 'isn't it because this guy's not gonna fold' (s59, Eric) and Tyler's 'it depends a little bit on the guy' (s85). The shipped fixture's villain name 'FISH' had no source and is removed." } }, "context": "TYLER'S OWN HAND · $2.50/$5 ONLINE · 6-MAX TABLE, 4 DEALT · BTN vs THE BIG BLIND", "hero": { "pos": "BTN", "cards": [ "Qh", "Jd" ], "stack_bb": 179.19, "avatar": "lono_ghoul", "button": true }, "seats": [ { "pos": "SB", "avatar": "ghoul_4119", "folded": true }, { "pos": "BB", "avatar": "ghoul_2671", "stack_bb": 148.58, "villain": true }, { "pos": "CO", "avatar": "ghoul_2374", "folded": true } ], "streets": [ { "name": "preflop", "actions": [ { "pos": "CO", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "open", "to_bb": 2.5 }, { "pos": "SB", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "BB", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 5.5 }, { "name": "flop", "board": [ "Ad", "4s", "3h" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "BB", "act": "check" }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 1.7 }, { "pos": "BB", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 8.9 }, { "name": "turn", "board": [ "Ad", "4s", "3h", "Ts" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "BB", "act": "check" }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 10.8 }, { "pos": "BB", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 30.5 }, { "name": "river", "board": [ "Ad", "4s", "3h", "Ts", "Jc" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "BB", "act": "check" } ], "pot_bb": 30.5 } ], "prompt": "Q♥J♦ · THE RIVER PAIRS YOUR JACK · HE CALLED YOUR 10.8 BB TURN OVERBET, THEN CHECKED · 30.5 BB IN THE POT — CHECK, BET, OR JAM?", "pot_bb": 30.5, "options": [ { "id": "check", "label": "CHECK BACK" }, { "id": "bet50", "label": "BET 50 BB" }, { "id": "jam", "label": "JAM ALL IN (148.6 BB)" } ], "correct": "jam", "option_feedback": { "check": "This is the line Tyler actually took — and he spends the rest of the review annoyed about it: \"I knew it in game.\" Almost everything that calls a flop bet and then a 10.8 BB turn barrel into 8.9 has an ace, so a pair of jacks wins the pot maybe 10% of the time by his own estimate. That is not showdown value worth protecting.", "bet50": "Right idea, wrong price — this is the size Tyler names himself, and his read is that ace-queen simply pure-calls it. Any price his aces are happy to pay is a price only better hands pay: you fold out nothing and you get looked up by every hand that beats a pair of jacks.", "jam": "Correct. Once the turn barrel gets called his range is basically aces — Tyler's answer to Eric is that after that sizing there is hardly any king-queen left in it, \"it's really ace-queen\" — and ace-queen does not pure-call a shove for 148.6 BB. Two pair is only 15% of that range and folds over half the time, which is how he gets to roughly a 90% fold. The jam also represents the one hand almost nobody still has here: king-queen, the straight." }, "verdict_text": "He only has two pair 15% of the time, and I think that folds over half. I mean, I probably get 90% fold on this river. I just don't think ace-queen will pure-call a jam.", "principle": "A made hand that loses to almost everything which called two barrels is not showdown value — it is a bluff candidate. Then the only question is price: a size his best hands are happy to call is worth nothing, so the bet has to be big enough that even top pair folds. Here that is the whole stack.", "concept": "pair-as-overbet-bluff-no-showdown", "concepts_secondary": [ "no-showdown-value-barrel" ], "topic": "river-bluffing", "difficulty": 5, "pct_provenance": { "15": { "role": "range_tool", "referent": "the share of the villain's river range that makes exactly TWO PAIR — 16 of the 101 combos in the range Tyler hand-builds for this opponent on this exact board. NOT a population figure and NOT hero's equity.", "source": "Flopzilla v1.8.6 header 'two pair: 15.8%, 16 combos out of 101' (own frame t=519) + grid footer '101 combos in preflop range' (own frame t=541); spoken by Tyler as 'he only has two pair 15 % of the time' (s104) and aired." }, "90": { "role": "tape_estimate", "referent": "Tyler's estimate of how often THIS villain folds to the river jam, assembled live from the range on screen: the two-pair region 'folds half' and 'this blocker hand probably calls maybe a quarter' (s105). An estimate about one opponent's range, not a measured population fold rate.", "source": "s106 'I mean, I probably get 90 % fold on this River' (t=539.6-542.4), spoken over the replayer at this river node (own frame t=541); aired." }, "10": { "role": "tape_estimate", "referent": "how often Tyler expects to WIN THE POT if he checks Q♥J♦ back — 'I'm gonna win a little bit of this pot probably about 10 % of it would be my guess' (ASR renders 'my gas'). His estimate of the check-back's showdown share at this node; not an equity calculation and not a population figure.", "source": "s83 (t=398.9-403.2), spoken over this hand's river node; NOT aired — displayed in the CHECK feedback only." } }, "size_claims": { "_note": "Every bet in this fixture is the logged native amount ÷ 5.00. The percentages below are recomputed from the NATIVE numbers, so display rounding cannot move a band. NOTE on streets[].pot_bb: the corpus/site convention is the SETTLED pot at the END of that street (js/quiz.js buildFrames carries prev.pot_bb across the boundary), so flop 8.9 and turn 30.5 are end-of-street pots — the pot the NEXT bet goes into. Do not read them as the pot the street's own bet went into (that is 5.5 for the flop bet and 8.9 for the turn bet).", "overbet": { "street": "turn", "actor": "hero", "to_bb": 10.8, "pct_of_pot": 120.8, "source": "log 'Hero bets 53.91' into the $44.62 turn pot = 120.8% of pot — an overbet on the native numbers. The word also appears in the quiz id, where it names the RIVER jam: $742.90 into $152.44 = 487.3% of pot, an overbet by a much wider margin. Both readings sit inside the band.", "spoken": "Tyler calls the turn bet an over-bet himself — 'when you over bet turn' (s120)." }, "flop c-bet 1.7": { "street": "flop", "actor": "hero", "to_bb": 1.7, "pct_of_pot": 31.1, "source": "log 'Hero bets 8.56' into the $27.50 preflop pot = 31.1%. No adjective is attached to it anywhere in the fixture or the clip — Tyler never characterises this bet's size, so the fixture does not either." }, "bet50 option": { "street": "river", "actor": "hero (counterfactual option)", "to_bb": 50.0, "pct_of_pot": 164.0, "source": "Tyler's own alternative sizing, spoken as '250' at $5/BB: 'I just don't think ace Queen will pure call it jam. I think it'll pure calling 250' (s121-s122). $250 into $152.44 = 164% of pot. The option label carries the BB figure only — no adjective." } }, "claims": [ { "text": "the stake scale used for every conversion", "lhs": "1 BB", "op": "=", "rhs": "$5.00", "source": "log line 'P3-919480XJ posts the big blind 5.00' (own frame t=317); title bar '$5 NL (6 max)'" }, { "text": "pot at the decision", "lhs": "$27.50 + 8.56×2 + 53.91×2", "op": "=", "rhs": "$152.44 = 30.49 BB, displayed 30.5", "source": "felt 'Pot: $27.50' (t=317) and 'Pot: $152.44' (t=519/541/610/771) with the log's bets between them" }, { "text": "the jam is the villain's whole stack, not hero's", "lhs": "min($895.95, $742.90)", "op": "=", "rhs": "$742.90 = 148.58 BB, displayed 148.6", "source": "seat plates at the river node (t=519/541/610/771). Tyler prices the same shove on tape: '$750 here' (s151)" }, { "text": "the jam is about five times the pot", "lhs": "$742.90 ÷ $152.44", "op": "=", "rhs": "4.87 — Tyler on tape: '5x pot. Are you that ballsy?' (s72)", "source": "felt pot + villain stack plate, same frames" }, { "text": "the price the villain would be laid", "lhs": "742.90 ÷ (742.90 + 895.34)", "op": "=", "rhs": "45.3% equity needed to call — Tyler on tape: 'he needs 46 percent equity to call this thing' (s138)", "source": "arithmetic on the felt pot and the villain's stack; deliberately NOT displayed, so no third percentage competes with the two aired ones" }, { "text": "hero's hand at the decision", "lhs": "Q♥J♦ on A♦4♠3♥T♠J♣", "op": "=", "rhs": "one pair, jacks — beaten by every ace, still ahead of the ten-high and nine-high pairs in the 'dangly region of nonsense' Tyler leaves in the range (s91)", "source": "log board text + hero pixels; this is why the feedback says 'almost everything', not 'everything'" }, { "text": "what the jam represents", "lhs": "K + Q on A-J-T", "op": "=", "rhs": "A-K-Q-J-T, the nuts (no flush is possible on d/s/h/s/c)", "source": "board from the log; Tyler frames the fold that way — 'no one wants to lose $750 here against King Queen' (s150-151)" }, { "text": "starting stacks were unequal", "lhs": "hero 179.19 + 15.0 / villain 148.58 + 15.0", "op": "=", "rhs": "194.18 BB / 163.57 BB — effective 163.57 BB, so no single depth figure is true of the table", "source": "seat plates t=317 ($958.42 / $805.37) and t=771 ($895.95 / $742.90)" } ], "unverifiable_claims": [ "The ~90% fold is Tyler's JUDGEMENT about this opponent's range, assembled on screen from the Flopzilla range (s105: the two-pair region 'folds half', 'this blocker hand probably calls maybe a quarter'). It is not a measured frequency. Everything in this segment that IS measured stays unaired and undisplayed: s104's tail ('I've tried this play before and people fold ace ten'), s159's monthly triple-barrel rate, s161's 'I've seen in data', and the PokerTracker population popup at t=762.", "The ~10% check-back estimate (s83) is likewise Tyler's own number — 'probably about 10% of it would be my guess'. His dollar EVs from the same beat ($60 for the shove, s110; '$10 to $30' for the check-back, s86) are recorded as corroboration but are NOT displayed, because the fixture displays BB and a bare dollar figure would have no on-screen referent.", "The BET 50 BB option renders Tyler's own alternative sizing, spoken as '250' (s122, = 50 BB at $5/BB). The sentence is ASR-garbled ('I think it'll pure calling 250') so it is not aired; the number is unambiguous from its contrast with the jam in s121, but the option is a counterfactual and is labelled as a choice, never as something that happened.", "'It's really ace-queen' (s120) is Tyler's range read, offered as a REBUTTAL to Eric's 'having the Queen is huge' (s119) — i.e. the queen blocks ace-queen, not king-queen. The jam feedback states it that way round on purpose. The villain did in fact hold Q♠A♣, but that is provenance, not the argument." ], "cosmetic_invention": [ "Ghoul avatars, art only: hero lono_ghoul, villain BB ghoul_2671, folded SB ghoul_4119, folded CO ghoul_2374. The replayer shows anonymised network IDs (P1-102911VX, P3-919480XJ, P4-720173RV).", "The two EMPTY seats of the 6-max table are not rendered: the felt shows the four players who were dealt in, as table_size 4. The context line says so ('6-MAX TABLE, 4 DEALT').", "Nothing else. In particular there is NO villain name: the shipped fixture called him 'FISH' and no such read exists on tape (see source.hand_record.negative_findings), so the seat renders as the bare VILLAIN." ], "sourced_not_invented": [ "Hero Q♥J♦ — pixels off the 4-colour deck at t=317 and t=610. The suits happen to be inert (no flush is possible) but they were READ, not chosen.", "Board A♦4♠3♥ / T♠ / J♣ — literal log text ('Flop: [Ad 4s 3h]', 'Turn: [Ts]', 'River: [Jc]'), cross-checked against the felt.", "Every size and pot — the 2.50/5.00 blinds, the 12.50 open, 8.56, 53.91 and the $152.44 pot are logged/printed native amounts divided by the logged $5.00 big blind.", "Both displayed stacks — hero 179.19 BB and villain 148.58 BB are the seat plates $895.95 and $742.90 at the river node. The jam size in the option label is the villain's plate, not an assumption about who covers whom.", "Positions BTN/SB/BB/CO and the 4-handed structure — derived from the log ('Seat 3 (Hero) is the dealer', P1 posts the SB, P3 posts the BB, P4 is the only player to act before hero) plus the two visibly empty ovals. The replayer prints no position labels; the derivation invents no players.", "Hero's action history and the check-back result — log lines, not inference.", "The 'king-queen is the nuts' framing — the board comes from the log and the straight follows from it; Tyler says it out loud at s150-151.", "The 15% figure and its 101-combo denominator — Flopzilla header and grid footer, matching Tyler's spoken 15%." ], "aired_transcript": "He only has 2-pair 15% of the time, and I think that folds over half. I mean, I probably get 90% fold on this river here. I just don't think Ace Queen will peer-call his jam.", "aired_transcript_note": "Verbatim faster-whisper small.en re-ASR of the delivered 11.08s m4a, 2026-08-08. Two known artefacts: 'peer-call' is small.en's standing garble for 'pure call' (documented in lono/table/quiz.py's display map), and the 'here' ending beat 2 is the 0.18s tail handle clipping the vocative 'Eric'. No street the felt does not show, no size adjective, no population magnitude, and both aired percentages carry pct_provenance entries.", "decision": { "pot_settled_bb": 30.5, "bets": {} } }