{ "schema_version": "1.3", "table_size": 5, "id": "qt-scare-river-judge", "format": "judge_play", "free": true, "rebuild": "v2", "provenance_class": "dealt_hand", "updated_at": "2026-08-08T00:00:00Z", "source": { "session_id": "2025-12-04", "verdict_audio": "quiz/audio/qt-scare-river-judge.m4a", "verdict_audio_note": "prototype clip, cut ad-hoc pre-tooling and already delivered to the site (site repo quiz/audio/, 2026-07-15); intentionally no local m4a and no beats entry — see tools/cut_quiz_audio.py header. Re-ASR-verified at this fidelity gate (small.en, 2026-08-08): the clip airs SER s367+s368 (1812.98-1819.04) + s373 (1831.58-1835.48) — 'Oh man, this is the best card ever for him, isn't it? He bets every single combo, which means I need to call. I mean, I wasn't wrong, like he's betting this card every time, but this hand has to be a call.' (re-ASR hears the final 'but' as 'that'; SER source word w3992 t=1834.42 reads 'but'). s369 'So I screwed this one up' is tape-only and NOT in the clip.", "lesson_slug": null, "hand_record": { "site": "Ignition hand, reviewed in the PokerTracker 4 replayer (frames READ-ONLY, never aired)", "hand_id": "#4790866184", "stake": "$5 NL (6 max)", "stake_source": "replayer title bar verbatim 'Playback for Ignition Hand #4790866184 (2) - $5 NL (6 max) - Holdem' — session 2025-12-04 frame t=1728 (title-bar zoom re-read this rebuild)", "units_note": "the replayer displays every amount natively in BB ('posts the small blind 0.50 BB', 'Pot: 6 BB', 'bets 4.28 BB'); the fixture copies those BB figures verbatim — no $-to-bb conversion was performed anywhere", "video_t": [1725.0, 1766.0], "frames": [ "t=1728 — title bar; 5 players seated at the 6-max table (empty seat top-right); preflop log verbatim: 'Seat 3 (P3-39b9ad9c24feaf6db7be30a27125fc6c) is the dealer / P4-06490b80c1c2eb425ce6902a8a355dc5 posts the small blind 0.50 BB / Hero posts the big blind 1 BB / P6-b9d5f3f92… folds / P2-6c2ee5ac4… folds / P3-39b9ad9c2… folds / P4-06490b80c… raises to 3 BB / Hero calls 2 BB'; 'Pot: 6 BB'", "t=1736 — turn state: board 2c 8s 6d Qh on the felt (4-colour deck: green/black/blue/red), 'Pot: 10.28 BB', 'Odds: 2.40:1 - 29%', villain bet chips '4.28 BB', hero seat 'Hero - 85% / 111.94 BB'", "t=1744 — same turn node, villain seat '202.07 BB' after the 4.28 bet", "t=1752 — river decision: board +Kh (red heart K), log verbatim 'Turn: [Qh] / P4-… bets 4.28 BB / Hero calls 4.28 BB / River: [Kh] / P4-… bets 10.46 BB', 'Pot: 25.02 BB', 'Odds: 2.39:1 - 29%', centre pot '14.55 BB', villain bet '10.46 BB', hero 'Hero - 79% / 107.67 BB', villain '191.61 BB'; hero hole-card zoom: T on a BLUE card with a diamond pip + Q on a GREY card with a spade pip = Td Qs", "t=1756 — result: hero seat 'Hero / FOLD', log verbatim 'Hero folds / 10.46 BB returned to P4-06490b80c1c2eb425ce6902a8a355dc5'" ], "log_verbatim": [ "Seat 3 (P3-39b9ad9c24feaf6db7be30a27125fc6c) is the dealer", "P4-06490b80c1c2eb425ce6902a8a355dc5 posts the small blind 0.50 BB", "Hero posts the big blind 1 BB", "P6-b9d5f3f92b81aff2d9a7a202eefbef96 folds", "P2-6c2ee5ac4c77ad5934b0e98d40496894 folds", "P3-39b9ad9c24feaf6db7be30a27125fc6c folds", "P4-06490b80c1c2eb425ce6902a8a355dc5 raises to 3 BB", "Hero calls 2 BB", "Flop: [2c 8s 6d]", "P4-06490b80c1c2eb425ce6902a8a355dc5 checks", "Hero checks", "Turn: [Qh]", "P4-06490b80c1c2eb425ce6902a8a355dc5 bets 4.28 BB", "Hero calls 4.28 BB", "River: [Kh]", "P4-06490b80c1c2eb425ce6902a8a355dc5 bets 10.46 BB", "Hero folds", "10.46 BB returned to P4-06490b80c1c2eb425ce6902a8a355dc5" ], "table_structure": "6-max table running 5-handed (one seat empty, frame t=1728) — no straddle, no ante; dealer P3, villain = the small blind (P4), hero (Tyler's database Hero) in the BB", "stacks_bb": { "hero_at_decision": 107.67, "villain_after_river_bet": 191.61, "hero_start_derived": "114.94 — seat reads 111.94 after the 3bb preflop call (t=1736) and 107.67 after the 4.28 turn call (t=1752)", "villain_start_derived": "209.35 — seat reads 202.07 after 3bb raise + 4.28 turn bet (t=1744) and 191.61 after the 10.46 river bet (t=1752)" }, "solver_check": { "context": "Tyler's post-hoc verification of THIS hand, ~60s after the replay (s360 'Let's check this in solver and see how I did') — the aired verdict is his read of this screen; the solver node reproduces the real hand line action-for-action", "tool": "GTO Wizard — left rail 'Cash 100bb / 6max NL500 / General GTO' (frame t=1817)", "board_typed": "Chrome tab '8c6d2hQhKs - Solutions - GTO' — rank-identical re-entry of the real 2c 8s 6d Qh Kh runout with remapped suits (NOT a strict suit-isomorph: the sim's turn Qh pairs its flop 2h, briefly creating turn heart-draws the real rainbow-flop+Qh board never had, and the sim river is the Ks; by the river neither board has any possible flush, which is the load-bearing equivalence at this decision)", "node_line": "UTG Fold / HJ Fold / CO Fold / BTN Fold / SB Raise 3 / BB Call / FLOP 8 6 2 check-check / TURN Q, SB Bet 4.5, BB Call / RIVER K — the real hand's line", "river_actions_panel": "SB strategy on the K river: Allin 92.5 0% / Bet 45 0% / Bet 22.5 8.7% / Bet 11.5 40.3% / Bet 7.5 33.1% / Bet 3 16.1% / Check 1.8% — bets sum to 98.2%; this panel is what s368 'He bets every single combo' reads", "frames": ["t=1817"], "caveat": "the solver preset is 6-max 100bb NL500; the real table was 5-handed with asymmetric deeper stacks — Tyler treats the check as directionally decisive and the quiz airs his conclusion, not a solver chip" } } }, "context": "TYLER'S OWN HAND · $5 NL 6-MAX, 5-HANDED · SB vs BB", "hero": { "pos": "BB", "cards": [ "Td", "Qs" ], "stack_bb": 107.67, "avatar": "lono_ghoul" }, "seats": [ { "pos": "UTG", "avatar": "ghoul_638", "folded": true }, { "pos": "CO", "avatar": "ghoul_973", "folded": true }, { "pos": "BTN", "avatar": "ghoul_969", "folded": true, "button": true }, { "pos": "SB", "avatar": "ghoul_3916", "stack_bb": 191.61, "villain": true } ], "streets": [ { "name": "preflop", "actions": [ { "pos": "UTG", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "CO", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "BTN", "act": "fold" }, { "pos": "SB", "act": "open", "to_bb": 3 }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 6 }, { "name": "flop", "board": [ "2c", "8s", "6d" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "SB", "act": "check" }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "check" } ] }, { "name": "turn", "board": [ "2c", "8s", "6d", "Qh" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "SB", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 4.28 }, { "pos": "hero", "act": "call" } ], "pot_bb": 14.56 }, { "name": "river", "board": [ "2c", "8s", "6d", "Qh", "Kh" ], "actions": [ { "pos": "SB", "act": "bet", "to_bb": 10.46 } ] } ], "prompt": "TYLER FOLDED. SCARE-CARD KING, BIG RIVER BET — WAS THE FOLD RIGHT?", "pot_bb": 25.02, "options": [ { "id": "good", "label": "GOOD FOLD" }, { "id": "bad", "label": "BAD FOLD" } ], "correct": "bad", "option_feedback": { "good": "Tempting — the king is exactly the card a queen-ten bluff-catcher hates, and 10.46 into 14.56 is a serious bet. But scary isn't beaten. When Tyler rebuilt this line in the solver afterward, the SB gets to bet that king with ~98% of his range — value and every missed hand alike. A card he bets with everything can't turn a live bluff-catcher into a fold.", "bad": "Correct — and it's Tyler's own verdict once he checked: the SB arrives at this king betting every single combo, value and air alike, so the bet itself says nothing. That leaves the price — 10.46 to win 25.02, under a third — and a pair of queens beats all the air in an everything-range. On tape: 'So I screwed this one up.'" }, "verdict_text": "Oh man, this is the best card ever for him, isn't it? He bets every single combo, which means I need to call. I wasn't wrong — he's betting this card every time — but this hand has to be a call.", "principle": "When the scare card gets bet with everything, it stops carrying information — the bluff-catcher's price, not the fear, decides.", "concept": "scare-card-100pct-bet-forces-call", "concepts_secondary": [], "topic": "river-defense", "difficulty": 5, "pct_provenance": { "98": { "role": "solver_frequency", "referent": "the SB's river BET frequency in Tyler's post-hoc GTO Wizard check of this exact line (Cash 6max NL500 100bb; tab board 8c6d2hQhKs, suit-isomorphic to the real runout): Actions panel Bet 22.5 8.7% + Bet 11.5 40.3% + Bet 7.5 33.1% + Bet 3 16.1% = 98.2% bet, Check 1.8% — the panel behind Tyler's aired 'He bets every single combo'", "source": "session 2025-12-04 frame t=1817; SER s368 (1816.68-1819.04, spk=tyler)" } }, "size_claims": { "three_quarters_turn_spoken": { "street": "turn", "actor": "SB", "pct_of_pot": 71.3, "source": "log 'bets 4.28 BB' into the 6 BB pot (frames t=1728/t=1736) = 71.3% — Tyler s351 'He bets three quarters spot on the queen' (spoken on tape, not displayed)" }, "three_quarters_river_spoken": { "street": "river", "actor": "SB", "pct_of_pot": 71.8, "source": "log 'bets 10.46 BB' into the 14.56 BB settled pot = 71.8% — Tyler s353-354 'All the king hits he bets three quarters spot' (spoken on tape, not displayed)" } }, "claims": [ { "text": "river price: 10.46 to call into 25.02 total — 29.5% breakeven", "check": "10.46/(25.02+10.46) = 0.2948; the replayer's own readout agrees: 'Odds: 2.39:1 - 29%' (frame t=1752)" }, { "text": "pot arithmetic: 6 preflop + 4.28 x 2 on the turn = 14.56 settled; + 10.46 = 25.02 facing", "check": "replayer prints 'Pot: 6 BB' (t=1728), centre pot '14.55 BB' (its own cent-rounding of the same state, t=1752) and 'Pot: 25.02 BB' at the decision (t=1752); the fixture carries the self-consistent 14.56/25.02" }, { "text": "result: Tyler folded the river; the 10.46 was returned uncalled", "check": "log verbatim 'Hero folds / 10.46 BB returned to P4-06490b80c…' + hero seat 'FOLD' (frame t=1756); SER s357-359 'Ooh fancy… Wow fancy fold… That's a wild fold', s369 'So I screwed this one up'" } ], "unverifiable_claims": [ "s365 'Call and then we catch the king of hearts to put the flusher out now' — no flush is possible on 2c 8s 6d Qh Kh (two hearts on board); 'flusher' is a 0.613-confidence ASR token over a loose aside. NOT aired and no flush story is rendered — the felt keeps the real two-heart board.", "s371 'supposed to call her queen' — garbled ('supposed' conf 0.082, 'queen' conf 0.239); not aired, not used." ], "cosmetic_invention": [ "Ghoul avatars (lono_ghoul hero; ghoul_638/ghoul_973/ghoul_969 folded seats; ghoul_3916 SB villain) — art only; the real table showed anonymized player hashes (P4-06490b80c…).", "Nothing else is invented: cards (Td Qs; 2c 8s 6d Qh Kh), structure (5-handed, dealer P3, SB villain, BB hero), sizes (3 / 4.28 / 10.46), stacks at the decision (107.67 / 191.61) and the fold are all frame-read from the PokerTracker replay of Ignition hand #4790866184.", "The villain carries no name — Tyler states no read on this opponent on tape, so the site renders its bare 'VILLAIN' fallback." ], "aired_transcript": "Oh man, this is the best card ever for him, isn't it? He bets every single combo, which means I need to call. I mean, I wasn't wrong — like, he's betting this card every time, but this hand has to be a call.", "decision": { "pot_settled_bb": 14.56, "bets": { "SB": 10.46 } } }