Lesson
Backtesting River Bluff-Catches to Find the Leak
Database & MDA Work · intermediate · 8 min
Tyler explains when to use randomized river bluff-catching decisions and when population or pattern reads should override the roll. The lesson shows how to back test river calls and folds in a database to identify whether bluff-catchers are winning or losing money and to improve future river decisions.
Key takeaways
- Use a randomizer for close river bluff-catches when you do not have a clear read on the opponent's value-to-bluff tendencies.
- Let observed betting patterns take precedence over randomization when the line is clearly biased toward value or bluff.
- Back test river decisions by comparing the actual result of calling or folding with the counterfactual result of taking the opposite action.
- Separate clear value hands from true bluff-catcher spots when reviewing river calls so the analysis focuses on close decisions.
- If repeated review shows you are misreading river spots, roll for close decisions while collecting more data on how opponents value bet and bluff.