Lesson
Bluffing a Busted Hand: The Fold-Equity Math
River Bluffing · intermediate · 9 min
Tyler walks Eric through a river bluff spot where hero is playing the board and has no showdown value. The lesson shows how to compare bet sizes by required fold frequency, then test assumptions about opponents’ ace-high and king-x ranges before choosing between a small bluff and a large overbet.
Key takeaways
- When betting 1 into a pot of 3 as a bluff, you need folds 25% of the time to break even.
- When betting 1.5 into a pot of 3 as a bluff, you need folds about 33% of the time to break even.
- If opponents only continue with ace-high against a small bet, estimate how often both players actually have an ace before deciding that they 'never fold.'
- A hand with no showdown value and only the board at showdown is a high-priority bluff candidate.
- A large 3x-4x pot bet can be considered if it folds ace-high and opponents are estimated to have king-x at a low frequency after checking twice.