Lesson
Does Ace-Queen Even Need to Bet Its Own Showdown Value?
Turn Mechanics · advanced · 13 min
Tyler reviews an Ace-Queen hand by comparing solver preferences with pool fold data after a flop check-back. The lesson focuses on choosing between turn overbets, half-pot turn into river overbet, and bet-flop lines by estimating how much EV comes from population overfolding.
Key takeaways
- After checking back flop with Ace-Queen, compare the turn overbet line against a smaller turn bet followed by a large river bet rather than assuming the immediate overbet is best.
- Use pool fold data to adjust sizing decisions: in the transcript, overbet lines are attractive because the pool appears to overfold compared with solver outputs.
- When evaluating a bluff or thin value line, include fold frequency, check-raise frequency, future street fold frequency, and the amount lost when called.
- A half-pot turn bet followed by a 300% pot river bet can outperform a turn overbet if the river node gets enough overfolds.
- A three-quarter-pot flop bet, small turn bet, and river jam is presented as another viable line that produces roughly similar results in the coach's calculation.