Lesson
MDF and the Bluff-Catcher Math
MDF & Indifference · intermediate · 16 min
Tyler and Eric work through river bluff-catching math for middling-strength hands, comparing always calling, always folding, and defending at minimum defense frequency. The lesson shows how MDF makes bluffs zero EV while also reducing how much value hands earn when you do not know the opponent's exact strategy.
Key takeaways
- Against a pot-size river bet, calling 50% of the time is the minimum defense frequency needed to make bluffs indifferent.
- Always calling lets an opponent exploit you by never bluffing; always folding lets an opponent exploit you by bluffing every time.
- MDF is designed to make the bettor's bluffs zero EV, not to make the bluff-catcher's entire strategy breakeven.
- Calling at MDF also limits the payoff to value bets because you are not paying them off every time.
- If you know an opponent's strategy, exploit it directly; MDF is most useful when facing an unknown or balanced strategy.