Lesson
Min/Max EV Framework for a River Bluff
River Bluffing · advanced · 14 min
Tyler walks Eric through evaluating a river bluff by comparing best-case and worst-case outcomes instead of assuming only the catastrophic scenario. The lesson shows how opponent range assumptions, prior-street raising frequencies, solver expectations, and population data on pair folds can change the estimated profitability of a bluff.
Key takeaways
- Estimate both the maximum and minimum EV of a bluff, then consider the distribution of likely opponent strategies between those endpoints.
- Do not assume an opponent reaches the river with all strong hands if the data shows they raise some portion of those hands on earlier streets.
- When a board creates many pair-plus-draw hands that miss or weaken by the river, expect some opponents to overcall earlier streets and then overfold river.
- Use database examples to test whether players actually fold pairs; even top pair folds can occur and should not be completely discounted.
- Avoid building the analysis around one hand like queen-six suited; focus on the full range of weaker queens, ten-x, eight-x, ace-jack, and other combos that may fold.