Lesson
Modeling the Recreational Over-Fold on the River
River Bluffing · intermediate · 7 min
Tyler explains how river bluffing changes when an out-of-position preflop raiser checks through to the river and overfolds. Viewers learn to compare a hand's check-back equity against the expected value of a bluff, and why hands with some showdown value can be too strong to bluff.
Key takeaways
- When checking back the river, a hand's value is roughly its equity share of the pot; a 10% equity hand makes about 10% of the pot.
- If an opponent overfolds to a river bet, weak hands with little or no showdown value can gain a fixed bluff value, such as 30% of the pot.
- Bluff hands whose check-back value is lower than the EV of betting; check hands whose showdown value is higher than the bluff EV.
- You can have too much equity to bluff on the river: if checking earns 40% of the pot and bluffing earns 30%, betting loses value.
- Use bet size and fold frequency to estimate bluff EV; for example, betting 75% pot into a player folding 65% can make about 38% of the pot.