Lesson
Poker as 'Game of War': Fixed MDF and the Combo-Counting Rule for River Value Bets
MDF & Indifference · intermediate · 8 min
Tyler frames river decisions as a "war" game where the caller must defend a fairly stable number of combos, then uses that count to define which hands qualify as value bets. The lesson shows how to review big river pots after a session by estimating the opponent's calling region, identifying the value-betting region, and deciding whether bluffs would have been profitable.
Key takeaways
- Estimate how many combos the opponent must call on the river based on the line, sizing, ranges, and board texture.
- Treat a river value bet as a hand that beats more than half of the opponent's calling combos.
- In the example where the opponent calls between 48 and 65 combos, the value-betting region discussed is roughly the top 24 combos — note that threshold tracks the low end of the range, so widen it when the calling range is nearer 65.
- Before bluffing, ask whether the opponent will call fewer than the required defending combos on that specific river card.
- Review big pots after sessions by reconstructing what hands the opponent would call, what hands you can value bet, and whether a bluff is profitable.