Lesson
Sizing Trips for Maximum Value: From 'One-Third Forever' to River Math
Bet Sizing · advanced · 16 min
Tyler walks through river sizing on a trips board after barreling K8, focusing on how 10x, 8x, and Kx portions of villain's range respond to different bets. The lesson shows how to compare a 2x-pot overbet against a three-quarter-pot bet by accounting for calls, folds, blockers, and occasional bluff raises.
Key takeaways
- On trips boards, avoid turn sizings that make the river value bet too thin; choose a size that keeps worse trips in and can induce bluff raises.
- When holding K8 on the discussed runout, three-quarter pot can outperform 2x pot because it gets called by more 10x and may induce occasional bluff raises.
- Do not use a middle sizing around pot if it loses calls from 10x without generating enough hero calls from 8x or Kx.
- Use blockers to adjust river sizing: holding a king reduces some Kx and K10 calls, while holding tens reduces available 10x and makes bigger betting more attractive.
- In the discussed MDA-based triple-barrel line, Tyler suggests 2x pot as the largest overbet size to use as the aggressor because larger sizes get overfolded to.