Lesson
The 40% Equity Rule for River Bluffing
River Bluffing · intermediate · 16 min
Tyler reviews river bluffing opportunities after opponents check back twice and explains how to compare showdown equity against fold data. Viewers learn when low-equity hands like small pairs or nine-eight should be turned into bluffs, and when board texture or multi-way action should make them more cautious.
Key takeaways
- When the line goes check-check on the flop and check-check on the turn, look for river bluffs with hands that have little showdown equity.
- If opponents are folding about 65% to a three-quarter-pot river bet, hands with less than roughly 35-40% showdown equity should usually bluff.
- Middle-strength hands that can still win at showdown, such as pairs of eights or nines in some spots, are often better checked than bluffed.
- Missing these river bluffs can cost around one big blind or more when the hand rarely wins by checking.
- Be more cautious bluffing multi-way or on river cards like an ace that opponents are likely to over-call.