Lesson
What Actually Determines Turn Bet Sizing
Turn Mechanics · advanced · 8 min
Tyler explains how to choose turn value-betting regions by identifying hands that are good more than 90% of the time, with exceptions for three-flush and four-straight boards. The lesson connects equity percentiles to PIO bet sizing, including why stronger and more stable value hands use larger or geometric sizes while small protection bets are often ignored.
Key takeaways
- Use hands with more than 90% equity on the turn as the default value region.
- Adjust the value threshold on three-flush boards, where only flushes are good 90% of the time, by using roughly 80% instead.
- Map equity percentile to sizing: around 80th percentile uses half pot, 85th uses three-quarter pot, 90th uses slightly over pot, and 93rd-94th uses about 1.3x pot.
- Use geometric sizing when the hand is very strong and the board texture is reasonably stable across river cards.
- Do not prioritize small turn protection bets, because protecting against about 7-11% equity only requires very small sizes that extract little value.