Lesson
Why We Overbet: Underbluffed Check-Raises and Geometric Sizing
Bet Sizing · advanced · 8 min
Tyler explains when flop overbets become preferable to small bets, using solver examples where the out-of-position player check-raises too little versus a one-third pot bet. The lesson shows how the roughly 13% check-raise threshold affects value with nut hands, and how board texture or player type can push you toward larger sizings.
Key takeaways
- Use larger flop sizings with nut hands when the opponent check-raises small bets less often than the breakeven frequency needed to make small and large bets equal value.
- In the examples discussed, about a 13% check-raise frequency versus a one-third pot bet is the breakeven point between betting small and betting big with a nut hand.
- On boards where the solver check-raises above that threshold, such as paired or more interactive textures, small bets tend to remain viable and big bets may disappear.
- On ace-Broadway boards such as A-K-4 where the check-raise frequency is below the threshold, the button shifts toward overbetting with strong hands.
- Against player types who under-check-raise compared to GTO, size up because the small-bet line does not generate enough extra value from check-raises.